Vice President, RMS
Paul leads the development of the RMS North Atlantic hurricane and storm-surge models. Since joining RMS in 2007, he has overseen the development of the medium-term U.S. hurricane activity rate forecast methodology and supported the design of several parametric indices for capital markets transactions. He is also the meteorological signatory for the RMS submission to the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology, the independent panel of experts created during the 1995 legislative session to evaluate methodologies for projecting hurricane losses.
Paul led the RMS contribution to the Risky Business project on the economic risk of climate change in the United States, commissioned by former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. Paul supervised the RMS team working with world-leading economists and scientists to develop a comprehensive view of the economic risks associated with climate change. Using modified RMS North Atlantic Hurricane and Storm Surge Models, economic damage to coastal areas was quantified based on rising sea levels along with changes in the frequency and severity of storms due to climate change.
Before joining RMS, Paul worked for the Lighthill Risk Network, a not-for-profit organization dedicated to linking academia and industry. He began his career on Aon’s catastrophe modeling team in London.
Paul has an MSc in physics and a PhD in atmospheric physics, both from Imperial College, London, where his research focused on the application of extreme value statistics in the climate system and the impact of long-ranged correlations on extreme events.