Tag Archives: Paris

Euro 2016: France inundated by fans and floods

This week the final knockout rounds of Euro 2016 take place in France. Sadly, England has long since left the country and the tournament, largely due to some inept displays. But more miserable than England’s performance, was the weather at the start of the tournament, which caused concern in the capital as intense precipitation on top of an already saturated France, led to severe flooding.

Some areas of the country experienced the worst flooding they have seen in a century, with the floods across eastern and central France declared a natural disaster by French President François Hollande. River levels in the Seine were at their highest in nearly 35 years, impacting Paris, and leading to three of the capital’s best-known museums — the Louvre, the Grand Palais, and Orsay —closing their doors to the public, as staff moved priceless works of art to the safety of higher floors.

Source: The Guardian

There were also concerns surrounding how the flooding could impact the tournament. However, as you can see in the below image, which represents the RMS 1,000 year inland flood hazard extent, neither of the two stadia located in France’s capital (yellow markers) were really at any risk of flooding. The same can’t be said for the fan zone adjacent to the Eiffel Tower though (red marker). Continued intense rainfall, would have led to increased flood severity, meaning that 90,000 or so fans would have been in need of their waders.

Stade de France and Parc des Princes (yellow markers); Paris Fan Zone (red marker)

Paris wasn’t the only location in France to be impacted by the floods though; further south the town of Nemours observed severe flooding as the River Loing burst its banks. While devastating to the local community, this severity of flooding can be expected in the town. The RMS Europe Inland Flood maps demonstrate such flooding for events in excess of the 50 year return period, but as the below image of the 200 year flood extent demonstrates, the flooding could have been even more severe.

Rue de Paris, Nemours (yellow marker) and Château-Musée de Nemours (red marker)

The flooding in Nemours is a good example of why it is so important to understand the standard of protection offered by local flood defenses, in order to fully understand flood risk. The RMS Europe Inland Flood models and maps explicitly represent the impact of flood defenses and provide some noteworthy insights into the potential exposure at risk, if the standard of protection is not maintained or local flood defenses are overtopped.

Rue de Paris, Nemours. Source: The Guardian

If we removed all flood defenses and consider a 100 year return period level of flood hazard across France, the RMS analyses estimate that over €600 billion of insured exposure is at risk to flood damage. However, approximately 40 percent of this exposure at risk is protected against such levels of hazard by local flood defenses.

Source: Château-Musée de Nemours

And in the largest exposure concentrations, such as Paris and its surrounding area, the importance of local defenses is even more prominent. Looking at a similar 100 year return period level of flood hazard in this region, almost €60 billion of insured exposure would be at risk of flooding, but approximately 90 percent of that exposure is protected against this level of hazard.

Flood can be thought of as a polar peril; if you’re in the extent of a flood event, the costs are high but if you’re on the edge then you’re safe. And for this reason, an understanding of the impact of flood defenses is vital, because if they breach or become overtopped, the losses can be high. Knowing where exposure is protected allows you to write business smartly in higher risk zones. But understanding the hazard, should defenses fail, is also vital, enabling a more informed understanding of severe flood risk and its associated uncertainties.

This post was co-authored by Rachael Whitford and Adrian Mark.

Paris in the Winter: Assessing Terrorism Risk after Charlie Hebdo

By Gordon Woo, catastrophe risk expert

My neighbor on the RER B train in Paris pressed the emergency button in the carriage. He spoke some words of alarm to me in French, pointing to a motionless passenger in the carriage. I left the train when the railway police came. A squad of heavily armed gendarmes marched along the platform and within minutes the Châtelet-les Halles station, the largest underground station in the world, was evacuated out of precaution due to the motionless passenger.

This was no ordinary event on the Paris subway, but then this was no ordinary day. “Je Suis Charlie” signs were everywhere. This was Saturday, January 10, the evening after two suspects were gunned down after the terrorist attack against the Charlie Hebdo offices on January 7, the most serious terrorist attack on French soil in more than forty years and the reason for my visit to Paris.

By Olivier Ortelpa from Paris, France (#jesuischarlie) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Fortunately, as a catastrophist, I knew my terrorism history when the emergency arose in my carriage. I always tell my audiences that understanding terrorism—and particularly frequency—is important for personal security, in addition to providing the basis for terrorism insurance risk modeling.

There is a common misconception that terrorism frequency is fundamentally unknowable. This would be true if terrorists could attack at will, which is the situation in countries where the security and intelligence services are ineffective or corrupt. However, this is not the case for many countries, including those in North America, Western Europe, and Australia. As revealed by whistleblower Edward Snowden, counter-terrorism surveillance is massive and indiscriminate; petabytes of internet traffic are swept up in search for the vaguest clues of terrorist conspiracy.

RMS has developed an innovative empirical method for calculating the frequency of significant (“macro-terror”) attacks, rather than relying solely on the subjective views of terrorism experts. This method is based on the fact that the great majority of significant terrorist plots are interdicted by western counter-terrorism forces. Of those that slip through the surveillance net, a proportion will fail through technical malfunction. This leaves just a few major plots where the terrorists can move towards their targets unhindered, and attack successfully.

Judicial courtroom data is available in the public domain for this frequency analysis. Genuine plots result in the arrest of terrorist suspects, indictment, and court conviction. If the evidence is insufficient to arrest, indict, and convict, then the suspects cannot be termed terrorists. Intelligence agencies may hear confidential chatter about possible conspiracies, or receive information via interrogation or from an informant, but this may be no more indicative of a terrorist plot than an Atlantic depression is of a European windstorm. As substantiation of this, there are no plots unknown to RMS in the book of Al Qaeda plots authored by Mitch Silber, director of intelligence analysis at the NYPD.

Since 9/11, there have been only four successful macro-terror plots against western nations: Madrid in 2004, London in 2005, Boston in 2013, and now Paris in 2015. Terrorism insurance is essentially insurance against failure of counter-terrorism. With just four failures in North America and Western Europe in the thirteen years since 9/11, the volatility in the frequency of terrorism attacks is lower than for natural hazards. Like earthquakes and windstorms, terrorism frequency can be understood and modeled. Unlike earthquakes and windstorms, terrorism frequency can be controlled.

My new report, “Understanding the Principles of Terrorism Risk Modeling from the ‘Charlie Hebdo’ Attacks in Paris,” uses the recent Charlie Hebdo attacks as a case study to explain principles of terrorism modeling. And, I will speaking in a webinar hosted by RMS on Wednesday, January 28 at 8am ET on “Terrorism Threats and Risk in 2015 and Beyond.”