Tag Archives: La Nina

Seasonal Forecast of European Windstorm Activity: Will a Stormier Atlantic Deliver Increased Losses?

Known indicators point to stormier conditions in the North Atlantic this winter. However, what this means for Europe windstorm losses is much less certain.

Our ability to understand and forecast variability of North Atlantic winter storminess continues to improve year-on-year. Research highlights in 2017 include:

  • A new, and skillful, empirical forecast model for winter climate in the North Atlantic revealed that sea ice concentrations in the Kara and Barents Seas are the main source of predictable winter climate variations over the past three decades. Interestingly, a separate 2017 study supports earlier forecasts of either a slowing or reversal of the sea ice reductions in the Barents and Kara Seas between now and 2020, implying an uptick in storminess over the next few years.
  • An innovative tool to analyze sources of predictability in a numerical forecast model revealed strong links between tropical climate anomalies and winter climate in the North Atlantic in that model.

Twelve months ago, the forecasting indicators for the windstorm season broadly pointed to a 2016/17 season characterized by below average storminess — a forecast borne out by subsequent observations. We have already had a fairly active start to the 2017/18 season, with Windstorms Xavier, Herwart, and ex-Hurricane Ophelia causing local damage, but what is the outlook for the rest of the season?

Continue reading

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Discovery and Dynamics

What is the El Niño Southern Oscillation? More conveniently known as ENSO, it is the planet’s largest source of natural climate variability on interannual time scales. ENSO describes the interaction between ocean and atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific, but the results of this interaction are global, and can last for many months. There is a good level of ENSO awareness in our industry, such as that warm phases of the oscillation (El Niño) tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, and that cool phases (La Niña) tend to enhance it. But how was ENSO discovered? And how does it work?

Continue reading

The 2016-17 Australian Cyclone Season: A Late Bloomer

The 2016-17 Australian region cyclone season will be remembered primarily as an exceptionally slow starter that eventually went on to produce a slightly below-average season in terms of activity.

With the official season running from November 1 to April 30 each year, an average of ten cyclones typically develop over Australian waters with around six making landfall, and on average, the first cyclone landfall is by December 25. For the 2016-17 season, we saw nine tropical cyclones, of which three further intensified into severe tropical cyclones and three of which made landfall, running contrary to an average to above-average forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology. Continue reading

Cat Losses, The Atlantic Basin, & Technology

Technology can be a powerful ally in the battle to successfully assess and manage risk. From new, high-definition models to fully hosted solutions that shrink costs and timeframes, risk professionals now have access to the tools they need to successfully manage their portfolios.

Advances both in the collection of data and computational strength have enabled more precise and comprehensive analytics than were previously possible, thus allowing a more complete and accurate risk profile.

The more you know about risk and exposure, the more they can be managed. Unmanaged or undermanaged, risks, and exposures can become problems and even turn tragic or fatal.

Global insured losses from catastrophes totaled $37 billion in 2015 according to Swiss Re’s most recent Sigma Study. The 2015 figure, at just over half the inflation-adjusted previous 10-year average of $62 billion in insured catastrophe losses, was substantially tied to a quiet Atlantic hurricane season.

“The relatively low level of losses was largely due to another benign hurricane season in the US. El Niño in 2015 contributed to weather patterns deviating from average climate norms,” said the Swiss Re report.

(Re)insurers’ financial results for the past two years have been dotted with the phrase “benign catastrophe losses,” demonstrating how they have benefitted from quiet Atlantic storm conditions producing below-average claims activity.

That period of below-average catastrophe losses for (re)insurers may be coming to an end as researchers and forecasters are pointing toward a more active Atlantic hurricane season for 2016.

When (not if) catastrophe losses do return to their 10-year average, that’s $25 billion across somebody’s balance sheet. What might the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season hold for the U.S. and those who insure it?

With ports lining the U.S. coast from Texas to New York, even one landfall could wreak havoc on marine activities and infrastructure as the country moves into the winter holiday and heating oil seasons.

More Active Season?

While 2015 saw only 11 named storms with just four hurricanes, early indications suggest that the 2016 season will exceed those totals.

An April 14 update from the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said that the current El Nino conditions, known to inhibit hurricane activity, are likely to abate.

El Niño is dissipating and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a 70 percent chance that La Niña—which favors more hurricane activity—will be present during the peak months of hurricane season, August through October.

“Nearly all models predict further weakening of El Niño, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during late spring or early summer 2016. Then, the chance of La Niña increases during the late summer or early fall,” the Center said in its update.

The Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project issued a forecast that included an estimated 12 named storms and five hurricanes, again greater than observed 2015 totals.

The Weather Company’s Professional Division issued a report stating the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane season would be he most active since 2012. This report forecasts 14 named storms, eight hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, more than the 30-year historical average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, according to The Weather Channel.

Most recently, NOAA followed its earlier report on El Nino with its annual Atlantic Hurricane Forecast, stating that this year’s hurricane season will see closer to Normal activity after three slow years.

“A near-normal prediction for this season suggests we could see more hurricane activity than we’ve seen in the last three years, which were below normal,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

The NOAA forecast predicts a 70% likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms, of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes and 1 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5). In addition to a near-normal season being most likely with a 45% chance, there is also a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 25% chance of a below-normal season.

Another ominous harbinger was the formation of tropical storm Colin on June 5—the earliest third storm on record in the Atlantic basin. Colin then made landfall on June 6 along Florida’s Big Bend with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph—the first named storm to make landfall in Florida since Andrea in 2013.

Earlier this year, Hurricane Alex became only the second hurricane on record to form in the month of January, sweeping through The Azores as a tropical storm.

Prepare for the Worst

The insurance sector has been substantially re-shaped since the last large catastrophe loss—by M&A, the influx of new capital—meaning new people, new relationships, even new claims procedures and personnel

It’s an entirely new landscape, entirely untested—how will it respond when a catastrophe hits and claims and losses mount?

From first responders to catastrophe modelers, one piece of advice never changes—be prepared.

That means understanding your exposures and accumulations and owning your own view of risk.

You can’t control or avoid catastrophes, but you can manage and mitigate their effects. Being prepared is the first step.

Is this the year that breaks the streak?

Sports fans around the world have witnessed impressive winning streaks throughout history. After capturing two consecutive UEFA European Championships (2008, 2012) and a World Cup championship (2010), the Spanish National Football Team entered the 2014 World Cup in Brazil as the top-ranked squad in international competition. The dominant Spaniards were among the international sportsbooks’ favorites to bring home the trophy once again.

Instead, surprising defeats at the hands of the Netherlands and Chile eliminated Spain at the group stage. Spain’s streak of dominance came to a sudden end, marking the earliest World Cup exit for a defending champion since 1950.

From a meteorological perspective, the United States is currently riding its own streak: ten Atlantic hurricane seasons without a major hurricane (category 3 or above) making landfall, the longest such stretch in recorded history. With another hurricane season upon us, many will be keeping a keen eye on the Atlantic this summer to see if this impressive streak will continue.

Global forecasting groups, such as Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk, have issued their tropical storm and hurricane activity forecasts for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. Christopher Allen of the RMS Event Response team has authored an excellent summary of their forecasts in the RMS 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook published this week on RMS.com.

You can also listen to my summary of the season’s forecasts during my talk to AM Best TV’s John Weber. In summary, most forecasts are predicting anywhere between near-average to above-average activity in the Atlantic basin, reflecting conflicting signals in the key indicators that influence hurricane formation.

Will we have increased hurricane activity?

One factor that may support increased hurricane activity this season is the anticipated state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. As reported on this blog several months ago, many ENSO forecasts project a transition out of last year’s historic El Niño phase into a La Niña phase, which is historically more favorable for hurricane development. Wind shear, detrimental to tropical cyclone formation, typically is reduced in the Atlantic basin during La Niña phases of ENSO.

Mid-May 2016 observations and model forecasts of ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index, through March 2017. Positive values correspond with El Niño, while negative values correspond with La Niña. Source: International Research Institute for Climate and Society

Conversely, some forecasts predict a cooling of Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which would oppose any support provided by a forecasted La Niña and reduce the potential for an active hurricane season. This cooling has been driven by a lengthened positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which causes stronger than normal trade winds in the tropical North Atlantic and upwelling of deeper cold ocean water near the surface.

February-April 2016 sea level pressure anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean (hPa, anomalies with respect to 1981-2010 climatology). Anomalously high pressure evident in the Azores and the mid-latitude North Atlantic signals a positive phase of the NAO. Source: National Centers for Environmental Prediction Monthly Reanalysis (Kalnay, E. and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 40-year Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471).

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may also be transitioning into a prolonged phase detrimental to tropical cyclone development, a theory often mentioned on this blog, although one that is still debated in the scientific community.

If considered in isolation, La Niña conditions and cooling Atlantic SSTs exert conflicting influences on Atlantic tropical cyclone development. However, forecasts contain key caveats that will ultimately determine this season’s activity:

  • Although a transition into a La Niña phase is widely anticipated, a late arrival would limit its ability to support development in the basin.
  • Further, forecasts of Atlantic sea surface temperature during August and September, the peak of hurricane season, remain conflicted.

Does the season’s early storm activity signify more activity?

Forecasts predicting above-average basin activity are understandable, given the early activity observed prior to the season’s official start. Tropical Storms Bonnie and Colin both formed before the second week in June, bringing heavy rainfall to South Carolina and the Gulf coast of Florida, respectively. Bonnie and Colin followed Hurricane Alex, the first January hurricane since 1938.

Bonnie’s formation marked the first time since 2012 that two named storms developed before June 1, the official start of hurricane season. The 2012 season ended with 19 total named storms, the third-most on record, including Superstorm Sandy, which caused more than $18 billion in insured losses.

Would the industry be prepared for the next major hurricane landfall? According to Fitch, the answer is yes: insurers and reinsurers in 18 coastal U.S. states would be equipped to handle one major event this season, although this resiliency has not been recently tested. More worrying, though, are the prospects of a large tail event or even multiple landfalling events, which may be supported by the right combination of oceanic and atmospheric influences.

With the hurricane season now officially underway, we will watch, wait and see how the season’s activity unfolds over the next few months. What is certain, though, is that streaks are made to be broken. It’s just a matter of when.

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Are the Tides Beginning to Turn?

The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially kicked off this week (June 1), running through November 30. Coming off a hurricane season with the lowest number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin since 1983, will 2014 follow suit as a less active season? If so, is the Atlantic Basin officially signaling a shift out of an active phase of hurricane activity? Or will we revert back to the above-average hurricane numbers and intensities we’ve grown accustomed to over most of the last 20 years? And regardless of the season’s severity, what should be done to prepare?

Forecasting the 2014 Hurricane Season

Most forecasts to date, including those of Colorado State University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), are calling for an average to below-average season in terms of the number of named storms (8–13), hurricanes (3–6), and major hurricanes (0–3). The same holds true for the overall intensity forecasts, where projected seasonal values of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range from just 55 to 84, compared to the average overall seasonal ACE of 101.8.

So what’s driving this outlook? Most forecasting organizations are attributing it to two major atmospheric drivers that have been known to suppress hurricane activity: the strong likelihood of an El Niño event developing this summer into the peak part of the season from July through October, and below-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin’s Main Development Region (MDR).

Model forecasts for El Niño/La Niña conditions in 2014. El Niño and La Niña conditions occur when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central Pacific are 0.5°C warmer than average and 0.5°C cooler than average, respectively.

Model forecasts for El Niño/La Niña conditions in 2014. El Niño and La Niña conditions occur when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central Pacific are 0.5°C warmer than average and 0.5°C cooler than average, respectively.

El Niño conditions create stronger-than-normal upper-level winds, which inhibit storms from forming and maintaining a favorable structure for intensification. Similarly, below-average ocean temperatures in the MDR essentially reduce the energy available to fuel storms, making it difficult for them to develop and intensify.

However, low activity does not always translate into a decrease in landfalling hurricanes. Also, all it takes is one landfalling event to cause catastrophic losses. For example, 1992 was a strong El Niño year, yet Hurricane Andrew made landfall in Florida as a Category 5 storm, eventually becoming the fourth most intense U.S. landfalling hurricane recorded, and the fourth costliest U.S. Atlantic hurricane. Of course, while a landfalling storm like Andrew may have occurred during the last significant El Niño year, there’s no guarantee it will happen this season. The U.S. has not experienced a major landfalling hurricane since Hurricane Wilma in August of 2005. This eight-year drought is the longest in recorded U.S. history.

Preparing for Hurricane Season

Whether or not the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is active, it is imperative to monitor and prepare for impending storms effectively to help reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster.

The NOAA National Hurricane Center provides several tips and educational guides for improving hurricane awareness, including forecasting tools that assess the potential impacts of landfalling hurricanes. This year, NOAA also offers an experimental mapping tool, as well as other new tools, to help communities understand their potential storm surge flood threat.

The RMS Event Response team provides real-time updates for all Atlantic hurricanes, among other global hazards, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Similarly, when it comes to preparation, along with the essentials, such as bottled water, canned foods, and battery-powered flashlights, consider purchasing these ten items.

Are you ready for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season?