Tag Archives: Exceedance

Exceedance 2017 Is Coming to New Orleans!

Welcome to the first in a series of blogs leading up to Exceedance 2017, March 20-23.

We’re looking forward to the event, which will be held at the Hyatt Regency New Orleans. Situated less than a mile from the historic French Quarter, and about a mile-and-a-half from Jackson Square, it’s a great location in the heart of the ‘Big Easy.’

This year’s theme, ‘Create Resilience,’ reflects the strength and spirit of New Orleans, including the tremendous progress made in the ten years since the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina. Exceedance 2017 will emphasize how innovation, analytics, and ingenuity can create more resilience in our global catastrophe risk management practices.

Hands-On Training for Risk Modeler on the RMS(one) Platform and Version 17

With the release of Risk Modeler on the RMS(one)® platform and Version 17 upcoming in April, this year’s Exceedance schedule is focused on training and enablement. It’s the only place to get key insights into these new RMS releases – and be trained to assess risk more effectively.

Exceedance2017Exceedance will feature over 22 speakers and provide many opportunities to dive deep into more than 20 new models, including North America Earthquake, North Atlantic Hurricane, and major advances in science, software, and HD-simulation models.

The agenda is designed to provide attendees with all the information they need for our new solutions developed for a rapidly changing market. Solutions that will increase operational effectiveness, agility, resilience, and business growth.

Take Some Time to Have Some Fun

Along with experiencing all there is to see and learn at Exceedance, there are plenty of opportunities to relax and have some fun with the following pre-conference activities:

Golf at TPC Louisiana: Enjoy a round at TPC Louisiana, rated one of Golfweek’s “Best Courses You Can Play.” It’s a great place for you and your colleagues to experience a one-of-a-kind day on a championship golf course.

Tour the Lower 9th Ward: Join the Make It Right Foundation for a walking tour of the Lower 9th Ward. You’ll experience first-hand how innovative partnerships and community-led design sessions are transforming the neighborhood that was most devastated by Hurricane Katrina.

Horse-Drawn Carriage Ride and Cooking Class: Journey through the French Quarter by carriage, where you’ll pass through the city’s eighteenth- and nineteenth-century French and Spanish architecture. Then, satisfy your appetite with chef extraordinaire Amy Sins who will guide you through an interactive culinary experience that ends with a delectable meal.

Spirits and Spirits – an Evening Tour: Take a guided evening stroll through the spooky side of the old French Quarter. You’ll hear tales from the city’s storied history, and perhaps even encounter a ghost or two. Then enjoy local cocktail favorites at one of New Orleans’s oldest restaurants, a former Spanish armory.

To learn more about these events, visit the Exceedance website. If you’re ready to register, fill out your form.

Exceedance will be here soon, so look for our next blog in two weeks. It will include the latest information on the session tracks and content, as well as details of the keynote speakers.

Exceedance 2016: Welcome Back to Miami!

We are back in sunny Miami, FL for Exceedance 2016 and ready for a week of engaging sessions, invigorating discussion, and plenty of networking opportunities.

If you’re joining us again here at the Fontainebleau Hotel, meet us in the Fleur De Lis Ballroom tonight at 5:30 p.m. for the Welcome Reception. If you were unable to make it this year, follow the highlights as we share on Twitter and LinkedIn, and here on the RMS Blog for #Exceedance news, insights, and photos.

Over the course of three days we have more than 60 sessions across six different tracks, so there is no shortage of thought-provoking content and discussions to be had. Download the mobile app to help you manage your schedule and maximize your week.

Here are a few highlights as you plan out your week:

This year, our lineup of keynote speakers includes:

  • Professor Bruce Hoffman, terrorism and security expert
  • Tim Jarvis, environmental scientist, author, adventurer
  • Matt Olsen, a president and co-founder, IronNet Cybersecurity
  • Hemant Shah, RMS Co-founder and CEO
  • Robert Muir-Wood, RMS Chief Research Officer
  • Emily Paterson, RMS Event Response Lead
  • Mark Powell, VP and Founder, HWind
  • Emily Grover-Kopec, VP, Model Product Strategy
  • Arno Hilberts, Senior Director, Global Flood Models
  • Shree Khare, Senior Director, Asia Models
  • Chris Folkman, Director, Marine and Terrorism Models
  • Tom Harvey, Product Manager, Cyber Models

The Lab: During breakfast and lunch, be sure to stop by The Lab to meet RMS experts and learn latest about RiskAssessor, RiskLink® version 16, Hosting Plus, and much more. Looking for some hands-on exercise? Join us to assemble 50 partially built bikes for donation to several Miami-based charities.

“EP” – The Exceedance Party: This year’s EP will be a vision in white, inspired by retro Miami and Fontainebleau’s heyday. Join us in Glimmer Ballroom to show off your dance moves to a five-piece band and DJ while enjoying specialty cocktails, lively conversations, delicious bites, a candy bar, photo booth, and more!

We’re excited to see you in Miami and are looking forward to a great week ahead!

Eliminate FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) – join us at Exceedance

RMS is rolling out the biggest pipeline of products in our history this year, with no signs of slowing in 2017. It’s not just the wide range of regions and perils, it’s also about introducing change environments such as portfolio management with RMS(one) to make decision making easier for our customers when incorporating new views of risk. It is vital that our customers can quickly adopt and then benefit from a great user experience with these solutions, to make a positive impact within their businesses.

It’s this combination of explaining new model developments and the ways to adopt new views of risk that we will be focusing on in 60+ sessions at Exceedance. Even if you know what’s coming up with RMS from a high-level perspective, with a team of over fifty scientists and modelers at Exceedance, we will help to place everything together – perils, regions, and deployment – to benefit everyone within a team managing risk. To illustrate, let’s just take three of the main perils that we will cover and list some of the highlights:

We will open the books on the science behind the 2017 North America Earthquake Model update, and share insight into the scope of enhancements across all model components. We explore the implementation of new maps such as the latest U.S. National Seismic Hazard maps, soil modeling and soil amplification through to geotechnical and vulnerability changes. We will also provide details around our updated liquefaction model through to business interruption and the effect of earthquake sub-perils, such as fire-following and sprinkler leakage.

Research driving the next RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models update will also be revealed. Learn about the latest insights into the next RMS Medium-Term Rates (MTRs) forecast as we discuss our research in the context of current views within the scientific community. We will also discuss the work RMS is doing to better understand forecast sensitivities and to validate the MTRs ahead of the 2017 model update.

And from the U.S., Asia to Europe, it’s the complete picture at Exceedance, starting from flood peril model fundamentals, including event generation and vulnerability modeling through to the data products they inform, such as flood maps and peril rating databases.

Our solutions for managing North American and European flood risk will be explained, such as using high-resolution hazard maps and data for better pricing and portfolio management, plus many new developments, such as tackling industrial flood risk, flood defenses and real-time climate hazard modeling advances.

There is much more to share, so look at our agenda and I hope you can join us at Exceedance.

Your essential ILS overview at Exceedance

The Insurance Linked Securities (ILS) market is always fast-moving, changing, and evolving. Even in the last twelve months we have seen events such as the emergence of new market players and the increasing convergence between the capital and reinsurance markets, with all this supported by a wave of new innovations.

If you are involved in the ILS sector, want to get involved, or are just interested to find out more about the ILS market, join us at Exceedance. The RMS Capital Markets team has developed five sessions focused on ILS, from general overviews to expert-led panel discussions with respected leaders from the ILS sector.

A good starting point at Exceedance is our session on “Innovation in Risk Transfer,” as we look back at the last twelve months in the ILS sector. An interesting counterbalance has developed with investors looking for new ways to deploy capital, combined with the sector developing new solutions, to address gaps in coverage, infrastructure resiliency, and efficiency of protection.

If you want to hear directly from the market, we have put together an Exceedance panel of industry leaders from specialist ILS funds, rated reinsurers, and hybrid capital providers. Our panel discussion entitled “The Changing Face of Third-Party Capital” will examine pricing, competition, the role of analytics, and how new opportunities continue to drive innovation in an increasingly capital-agnostic sector.

There are also three sessions from our team designed to give you more of a detailed overview into specific ILS-related topics:

  • Bridging the Coverage Gap: ILS capital continues to flow into the industry, and our session will reveal how market participants are driving innovation by designing new types of structures using cutting-edge analytics. These innovations are addressing protection gaps in developed and emerging markets, with market innovation complimenting traditional coverage rather than competing with it.
  • Time Is Money: This session will focus on how new insurance products are being developed around novel triggers designed to permit rapid payment after a catastrophe, enabling hedging of time-sensitive risks.
  • Modeling the Risk and Return of Reinsurance: To address a market shift from cat bonds to more non-liquid reinsurance investments, our session will show how standardized model analytics can provide much-needed consistency in the view of risk, asset valuation, and expected returns.

Join us at Exceedance.

New products and new solutions to discover at this year’s Exceedance

If you are a risk professional that always wants to discover what’s new in our industry, then I’m sure you’d be interested in learning about our new developments: the first RMS high-definition (HD) models, managing novel perils such as cyber, and a total re-examination of more established perils, such as marine cargo.

You can satisfy this craving for the latest thinking, products, and solutions by joining us at Exceedance in Miami this May. With more than sixty sessions plus our general sessions and keynotes, here’s just a selection of the new developments we’ll be covering:

Explore high-definition (HD) modeling

There is a lot of excitement around HD models, representing our next generation of RMS probabilistic modeling, with full-simulation models incorporating the latest technology across all modeling components. You will be among the first to discover our new HD models at Exceedance, with HD modeling powered by RMS(one) for Europe Flood, Japan Typhoon, and New Zealand Earthquake.

It’s not just the models themselves that we will examine; we’ll also look at business-use cases for all RMS HD model components and analytics, from data to maps, and our Model Evaluation Environment, through to portfolio management with RMS(one).

HD modeling at Exceedance

New opportunities from new perils and new models

New perils are always fascinating as they offer growth for those who can harness their potential. To give us all a head start and increase understanding, we have called in leading experts in cyber and terrorism for Exceedance to discuss the latest insights for both these high-profile perils.

While cyber continues to be a serious business threat, (re)insurers’ cautiousness around the systemic nature of the risk sees cyber insurance demand outstripping supply. Matt Olsen, president of IronNet, will give context on the cyber crime environment, with the RMS Cyber Risk team explaining how to assess cyber threat and manage risk accumulations with our new Cyber Accumulation Management System.

Respected terrorism expert Bruce Hoffman will offer his view of a world where extremism is on the rise, as we also show the similarities and differences between modeling a human-made peril compared to traditional natural catastrophe modeling concepts and practices.

Finally, with the sheer scale of global trade seeing accumulations of billions of dollars of cargo at global ports, a new approach to modeling marine cargo insurance is needed. We’ll show examples of sample modeled losses using our new RMS Cargo and Specie Model, explain how to manage a global cargo portfolio, and tackle accumulations in prime risk areas such as ports.

Explore The Lab and Mini Theater at Exceedance

I hope you can join us at Exceedance.

Exceedance Keynotes Announced: Terrorism, Cyber, Climate

The just-announced keynote speakers are among the many reasons to join us at Exceedance 2016. These leading experts will share their unique insights on terrorism, cyber security, and climate change—focusing on the human elements driving the science:

  • Bruce Hoffman, security studies professor at Georgetown University who held counterterrorism posts at RAND and the CIA and was a lead author of the final report from the independent commission on the FBI’s post-9/11 terrorism response
  • Matt Olsen, a president and co-founder of IronNet Cybersecurity whose work at the National Security Agency and Department of Justice led to his appointment as director of the federal government’s National Counterterrorism Center
  • Tim Jarvis, environmental scientist and author who is the founder and leader of 25zero, a campaign to raise awareness of the impact of human-induced climate change on the world’s rapidly melting equatorial glaciers—and leader of multiple expeditions including the Shackleton Epic Expedition

We’ve also recently released descriptions of the more than 60 sessions and other opportunities to interact with leaders, scientists, and your peers.

There are so many reasons to be a part of Exceedance this year, we’ve created a 1-minute video outlining the Top 5.

We hope to see you May 16-19 in Miami.

Exceedance 2015: In the Books

It’s been quite a week here in Miami – full of palm trees, ocean views…and catastrophe risk management.

Throughout the week, our keynote speakers discussed hot topics in science, catastrophe modeling, and risk management:

  • We kicked off the week with keynotes from Hemant Shah, Paul Wilson, Ben Brookes, and Daniel Stander discussing RMS’ vision for the future and how catastrophe modeling can enable innovation and growth within the (re)insurance industry and beyond.
  • Patricia Grossi shed light on earthquake risk in Latin America, and there were more than a few misty eyes as Laurence Golborne regaled us with tales of risk management from his time as minister of mines and energy in Chile, where he led the rescue of the “Los 33” miners trapped underground for more than two months.
  • Rick Knabb, director of the National Hurricane Center, explained why awareness is central to the mission of the NHC; educating the public about the need to prepare increases the ability to recover.
  • Robert Muir-Wood explained that the biggest concentrations of risk and gradients of risk are coastal, necessitating state-of-the-art modeling of storm surge, tsunami, and liquefaction in order to mitigate this risk.

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Hemant and other members of the RMS leadership team answered questions on-stage during an “Ask Us Anything” session. Here are a few highlights:

  • What’s your vision beyond 2020?
    • Eric Yau: We want to create an open platform that unlocks innovation potential for our clients and partners.
    • Matthew Grant: Our goal is to allow clients to underwrite business that isn’t possible today. We will work together to grow the broader (re)insurance market.
  • What can I do to help Nepal? 
    • Paul VanderMarck: We work with Build Change, an organization aligned with our mission of mitigating risk. We recommend them as an organization and are matching employee contributions. Build Change is starting a program in Nepal using the same playbook that has already been successful in areas such as Haiti and Japan.
  • Suppose you were to start from scratch today – would you do anything differently? 
    • Mohsen Rahnama: When we started, we didn’t have any of the tools we have today. We take advantage of and implement technology to approach problems in a systematic way. Technology allows us to build better models.

In addition, we were thankful to have many of our clients and partners not just attend, but present at Exceedance. BMS, JLT RE, Munich Re, Aon Benfield, Risk Frontiers, Holborn Corp, ARA, Willis Re, Guy Carpenter, TigerRisk, SCOR, and Price Forbes all presented during the “Alternative Views of the Market” track which provided insight from across the industry.

  • Munich Re showed impactful videos of homes under 100 mph winds, emphasizing the difference in performance of structures built to various standards.
  • Willis Re advocated for deterministic modeling and developing alternative views of risk by considering different sizes of events and “what if” analyses.
  • Guy Carpenter explained how to define critical events by aligning the level of loss to specific outcomes such as lost earnings, ratings watches, and ratings downgrades.

And finally, we salsa-ed the night away to the sweet tunes of two-time Grammy-nominated Latin band Palo during EP, the Exceedance Party, at LIV nightclub.

I hope you enjoyed the week and found it insightful and thought-provoking. We hope to see you all back at the Fontainebleau Miami Beach Hotel next year, where Exceedance 2016 will take place from May 16 to 19.

Water, Water Everywhere: The Effect of Climate Change on Florida

Climate change has been a hot topic in Florida for quite some time. Just last week, President Obama visited the Everglades to discuss the need to address climate change now.

RMS partnered with the Risky Business Initiative to quantify and publicize the economic risks the United States faces from the impacts of a changing climate. In Florida, there is a 1% chance that by 2100, 17% of current Florida property value will be underwater, causing a $20.7 billion increase in annual flooding losses, and $681 billion worth of property loss due to sea level rise.

Bob Correll, principal at the Global Environment Technology Foundation leading the Center for Energy and Climate Solutions: Just last week a report commissioned by the G7 was released to the foreign ministers, including Secretary of State John Kerry, titled “A New Climate for Peace: Taking Action on Climate and Fragility Risk.” It outlines seven things we need to worry about as the changing climate becomes more evident, including sea-level rise and coastal degradation.

Brian Soden, atmospheric sciences professor, University of Miami: Sea level rise is the impact of climate change that I’m most worried about. The rate of sea level rise has almost doubled in Miami over the past decade. We are the canary in the coal mine. If you increase sea level by just three feet, which is in the middle of the range of projections, the Everglades would pretty much be gone.

Robert Muir-Wood, chief research officer, RMS: At RMS we attempt to be completely objective about risk. We attempt to take the full scientific understanding and translate it into information about risk and the associated cost. Financial markets are smart. Future risk is already starting to affect the current value of property.

Matthew Nielson, senior director of global governmental and regulatory affairs, RMS: Regulations generally fall into two buckets: curbing emissions so we can temper this problem and thinking about future development and planning to account for future sea level rise.

But what do we do now? There are a lot of things to think about – one is drainage issues. Another is access to fresh water.

Paul Wilson, senior director of model development and lead modeler for the Risky Business Initiative, RMS: It will be interesting to see how things play out – if the response will come as a result of science and gradual sea level rise, or only after a major catastrophe.

Muir-Wood: It’s very hard for communities to take action until they’ve had a disaster. As we’ve seen with Hurricane Katrina and Superstorm Sandy, suddenly there’s all sorts of enlightened thinking about future risk, such as investments in sea defenses. Unfortunately, it often takes a catastrophe to impact on decisions about mitigating risk.

Paul VanderMarck, chief products officer, RMS: You can only build a sea wall so high before it’s not worth living here anymore.

Soden: The biggest question I ask myself is “when do I sell?”

Correll: A year ago the WEF came to us and asked if we would be willing to work with their young global leaders. We had the head of all Shell operations in the Middle East. We had the former head of GE operations in India. They are getting the message. They walked away saying, “we need to rethink our business plans to plan for the future.”

Modeling provides a lot of the underpinnings to make decisions that are outside of the norm. The past is no longer a prologue to the future.

Risk, Models, and Innovations: It’s All Interconnected

A few themes came through loud and clear during this morning’s keynote sessions at Exceedance 2015.

RMS’ commitment to modeling innovation was unmistakable. As RMS co-founder and CEO Hemant Shah highlighted on stage, RMS worked hard and met our commitment to release RiskLink version 15 on March 31, taking extra measures to ensure the quality of the product.

Over the past five years, RMS has released 210 model upgrades and 35 new models. With a 30% increase in model development resources over the last two years and 10 HD models in various stages of research and development, RMS has the most robust model pipeline in its history.

As Paul Wilson explained, HD models are all about providing better clarity into the risk. They are a more precise representation of the way a physical damage results in a (re)insurance loss, with a more precise treatment of propagation of uncertainty through the model, designed to deal with losses as closely as possible as the way claims occur in real life.

HD models are the cornerstone of the work RMS is doing in model development right now. HD models represent the intersection of RMS research, science and technology. With HD models we are not limited by software – we can approach the challenge of modeling risk in exciting new ways.

And it’s more than just the models – RMS is committed to transparency, engagement, and collaboration.

RMS’ commitment to RMS(one) was also clear. Learning from the lessons of the past year, RMS developing an open platform that’s not just about enabling RMS to build its own models. It’s an exposure and risk management platform that’s about enabling clients and partners to build models. It’s about analytics, dynamic risk management and more.

RMS(one) will be released, judiciously and fully-matured, in stages over the next 15 months,starting with a model evaluation environment for our first HD Model, Europe Flood, in autumn 2015.

And, Hemant emphasized that starting later this calendar year, RMS will open the platform to its clients and partners with the Platform Development Kit (PDK).

In addition, RMS(one) pricing will be built around three core principles:

  • Simple, predictable packages
  • In most cases, no additional fees for clients who simply want continuity in their RMS modeling relationships
  • Clearly differentiated high-value packages at compelling prices for those who wish to benefit from RMS(one) beyond its replacement as a superior modeling utility to RiskLink

The overall goal of RMS’ commitment to modeling and technology innovation is to capitalize on a growing and ever-changing global (re)insurance market, ultimately building a more resilient global society. RMS is working with industry clients and partners to do so by understanding emerging risks, identifying new opportunities to insure more risk, developing new risk transfer products, and creating new ways of measuring risk.

As Ben Brookes said, we only have to look at the recent events in Nepal to understand that there are huge opportunities – and needs – to improve resilience and the management of risk. RMS’ work for Metrocat, a catastrophe bond designed specifically to protect the New York MTA’s infrastructure against storm surge, showed the huge potential for the developing alternate methods of risk transfer in order to improve resilience.

And during his session, Daniel Stander pointed out that only 1.9% of the global economy is insured. As the world’s means of production shifts from assets to systems, RMS is working to understand how to understand systems of risk, starting with marine, supply chain, and cyber risk, tackling tough questions such as:

  • What are the choke points in the global shipping network, and how do they respond under stress?
  • How various events create a ripple effect that impact the global supply chain – for example, why did the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan cause a shortage of iPads in Australia, halt production at BMW in Germany, and enable a booming manufacturing industry in Guangzhou?
  • How do we measure cyber risk when technology has become so critical that it is systemically important to the global economy?

global shipping

Leaving the keynotes, a clear theme rang true: as the world becomes more interconnected, it is the intersection of innovation in science and technology that will enable us to scale and solve global problems head on.

Exceedance 2015: Welcome to Miami!

We have arrived in the City Under the Sun – Miami, FL – for Exceedance 2015, where the oceanfront views are providing the perfect backdrop for a week of engaging sessions, invigorating discussion, and plenty of networking opportunities.

For those of you joining us here at the legendary Fontainebleau Hotel, meet us poolside tonight at 5:30 p.m. to kick things off at the welcome reception. For those of you who couldn’t make it this year, make sure to follow RMS on Twitter, LinkedIn and here on the blog for #Exceedance news, insights, and photos.

With more than 60 sessions across eight different tracks, there is no shortage of thought-provoking content and discussions to be had. Download the mobile app to help you manage your schedule and maximize your week.

Here are a few highlights as you plan out your week:

Keynote Speakers: The keynote sessions are definitely not to be missed. This year, our lineup of keynote speakers includes:

  • Hemant Shah, RMS co-founder and CEO
  • Dr. Robert Muir-Wood, RMS chief research officer
  • Laurence Golborne, former Chilean minister of mines and energy
  • Richard Knabb, director of the National Hurricane Center
  • Dr. Patricia Grossi, senior director of model product management, RMS
  • Ben Brookes, vice president of capital markets, RMS
  • Paul Wilson, vice president of model development, RMS
  • Daniel Stander, managing director, RMS

Interconnected Risks: Cyber, contingent business interruption, and pandemic risk have all made headlines in the past year. Check out interconnected risk sessions where we’ll share the latest research into the unique challenges of interconnected risks and discuss lessons learned from the events such as the Ebola pandemic, Superstorm Sandy, and cyber attacks.

High-Definition Modeling: Make sure to attend our HD modeling sessions, held throughout the week, to learn about the methodology behind our HD models and how greater precision with a simulation-based approach will give insurers greater insight into and management of their risk.

Risk Management and the Allure of Latin America: For the first time, we are hosting an entire track focused on Latin America. The rapid expansion of insurance in Latin America and the Caribbean is creating opportunities for both insurers and reinsurers. We’re looking forward to diving deeper into how risk modeling tools can unlock opportunities in the region.

The Lab: The Lab is the perfect place to swing by between sessions to meet RMS experts and learn about everything from version 15 models and software to RMS Hosting Plus to capital market solutions. And stop by the Mini Theater for a great lineup of speakers on everything from analytical services to philanthropic partnerships.

 “EP” – The Exceedance Party: As always, we’re celebrating a full week of activities with the “EP” on Wednesday night. This year we’ll be at the LIV Nightclub, where you can be sure to find good food, drinks, and lively conversation along with two-time Grammy-nominated Latin band, Palo!

We’re glad to have you and are looking forward to a great week ahead!