Tag Archives: Asia risk

Insurance-Linked Securities in Asia – Looking Out for the Tipping Point

We were at a conference in Singapore, pushing to develop a market that doesn’t yet really exist. Grounds, you might think, for frustration.

And yet my RMS capital markets colleague, Jin Shah, and I were upbeat and, in truth, a little excited.

So often we end up at ILS conferences talking to the same audiences about the same topics. But this was different. The inaugural ILS Asia Conference organized by Artemis.bm, the de facto bulletin-board for the ILS industry, had 170 industry experts and practitioners from the region gathered in the Raffles Hotel ballroom.

The aim of the event was to demonstrate the ILS industry’s commitment to building a global footprint and developing expertise in the asset class among Asia’s investors and reinsurers. This conference was exciting because we can see the Asia insurance industry will approach a tipping point in the next decade or so, resulting in increased appetite in Asian ILS instruments from both sides. Let me explain how.

An Insurance Market Which Has Not Yet Matured

Currently in many Asian countries, the insurance market is still developing and the concept of insurance as a social and economic “good” is still not culturally normalized. In addition, mandatory insurance outside of auto/motor is, in some places, almost non-existent, with individuals looking instinctively to family and other social networks to provide financial safety-net.

Because of these factors, combined with generally lower levels of disposable income, property insurance penetration, in particular, is comparatively low in Asia. Thus, the region only contributes a small amount to reinsurer’s portfolios and capital loads. So they don’t yet need to transfer some of that risk to the capital markets as is the case in core, concentrated regions such as the U.S., Japan, and Europe. The economics of ILS in Asia are challenging to say the least, and in some cases, make fully collateralized products “non-starters” from a competitive point of view.

Growing Populations and Changing Demographics

But that’s the current environment. The future growth of the middle classes, particularly in China and India, will fuel increasing demand for all forms of insurance as more people chose to protect their assets against damage and loss. Given the sheer size of the population and their rate of growth, it is not inconceivable that within ten years these markets could represent a similar level of risk concentration to (re)insurers as the U.S., Europe, or Japan.

And that’s the tipping point.

In certain Asian countries, the ILS sector is already developed. For a number of years, Australian insurers have been tapping the capital markets as a strategic element of their outwards protection. Japanese risk has been a core part of the risk available in both the cat bond and collateralized re markets. Outside of these more mature markets, last year China Re issued their Panda Re cat bond which, whilst only being a $50 million dip-of-a-toe in the water, showed that ILS funds were keen to accept China risk and pave the way for larger issuances in the future.

And with social, demographic and economic changes in the years ahead Asia will provide a natural hunting ground for ILS funds, keen to leverage their broad and diversified capital base to support the local insurance market’s continued growth.

Sensing this future tipping point too, the Artemis conference was attended by more than 25 industry stalwarts who’d travelled from London, Bermuda, New York, San Francisco, Japan, and Australia to bring the conversation to new audiences. ILS investors are clearly looking to this region to diversify their own portfolios, both as a risk management measure and with an eye to the rapid growth occurring in the region – and the opportunities it presents.

Asia’s Costliest Cyclones: The Curse of September

The northwest Pacific is the most active tropical cyclone basin in the world, having produced some of the most intense and costly cyclone events on record. The 2015 typhoon season has been particularly active due to this year’s strong El Niño conditions.

Sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño is characterized by unusually warm temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. (NOAA)

The unpredictable nature of the El Niño phenomenon, which affects the genesis and pathway of tropical cyclones, and the complexity of tropical cyclone systems underscore the need to fully understand typhoon risk—particularly in Japan where exposure concentrations are high. Catastrophe models, such as the forthcoming RMS® Japan Typhoon Model, using a basin-wide event set to model the three key correlated perils—wind, inland and coastal flood—are more effective in enabling firms to price and manage the ever-evolving exposures that are at risk from this multifaceted peril.

The Significance of September

Peak typhoon season in the northwest Pacific basin is between July and October, but it’s September that typically sees the highest number of strong category 3-5 typhoons making landfall: eight of the top ten greatest insured losses from northwest Pacific tropical cyclones since 1980 all occurred in September.

In September, during El Niño years, Guam is significantly more susceptible to a higher proportion of landfalls, and Japan and Taiwan experience a slight increase due to the genesis and pathway of tropical cyclones. While wind is the primary driver of tropical cyclone loss in Japan, inland and coastal flooding also contribute substantially to the loss.

In September 1999, Typhoon Bart caused $3.5 billion in insured losses due to strong winds, heavy rainfall, and one of the highest storm surges on record at the time. The height of the storm surge reached 3.5 meters in Yatushiro Bay, western Japan, and destroyed coastal defences, inundating vast areas of land.

Five years later in September 2004, Typhoon Songda caused insured losses of $4.7 billion. Much of the loss was caused by rain-related events and flooding of more than 10,000 homes across South Korea and Japan in the Chugoku region, western Honshu.

Table 1 Top 10 Costliest Tropical Storms in Asia (1980-2014):

Date Event Affected Area Maximum Strength (SSHWS) Insured Loss ($mn)
Sept, 1991 Mireille Japan Cat 4 6,000
Sept, 2004 Songda Japan, South Korea Cat 4 4,700
Sept, 1999 Bart Japan, South Korea Cat 5 3,500
Sept, 1998 Vicki Japan, Philippines Cat 2 1,600
Oct, 2004 Tokage Japan Cat 4 1,300
Sept 2011 Roke Japan Cat 4 1,200
Aug – Sept, 2004 Chaba Japan, Russia Cat 5 1,200
Sept, 2006 Shanshan Japan, South Korea Cat 4 1,200
Sept, 2000 Saomai Japan, South Korea, Guam, Russia Cat 5 1,100
Sept, 1993 Yancy Japan Cat 4 980

Munich Re

September 2015 – A Costly Landfall for Japan?

This September we have already seen Tropical Storm Etau, which brought heavy rains to Aichi Prefecture on Honshu Island causing immense flooding to more than 16,000 buildings, and triggered dozens of landslides and mudslides.

The increased tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific this year has been attributed to an El Niño event that is forecast to strengthen further. Two factors linked to El Niño events suggest that this September could still see a costly landfall in Japan:

  • El Nino conditions drive the formation of tropical cyclones further eastward, increasing the travel times and distances of typhoons over water, giving rise to more intense events.
  • More northward recurving of storms produces tropical cyclones that track towards Japan, increasing the number of typhoons that could make landfall.

Combined, the above conditions increase the number of strong typhoons that make landfall in Japan.

Damaging Typhoons Don’t Just Occur In September

Damaging typhoons don’t just occur in September or El Niño years – they can happen under any conditions.

Of the ten costliest events, only Typhoon Mireille in 1999 and Typhoons Songda, Chaba, and Tokage, all of which made landfall in 2004, occurred during El Niño years

Look out for more information on this topic in the RMS paper “Effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on Typhoon Landfalls in the Northwest Pacific”, due to be published in October.

Opportunities and Challenges ahead for Vietnam: Lessons Learned from Thailand

Earlier this month I gave a presentation at the 13th Asia Insurance Review conference in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. It was a very worthwhile event that gave good insights into this young insurance market, and it was great to be in Ho Chi Minh City—a place that immediately captured me with its charm.

Bangkok, Thailand during the 2011 floods. Photo by Petty Officer 1st Class Jennifer Villalovos.

Vietnam shares striking similarities to Thailand, both from a peril and an exposure perspective. And, for Vietnam to become more resilient, it could make sense to learn from Thailand’s recent natural catastrophe (NatCat) experiences, and understand why some of the events were particularly painful in absence of good exposure data.

NatCat and Exposure similarities between Thailand and Vietnam 

Flood profile Vietnam shows a similar flood profile as Thailand, with significant flooding every year. Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, responsible for half of the country’s rice production, is especially susceptible to flooding.
Coast line Both coastlines are similar in length[1] and are similarly exposed to storm surge and tsunami.[2]
Tsunami & Tourism Thailand and its tourism industry were severely affected by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. Vietnam’s coastline and it’s tourism hotspots (e.g. Da Nang) show similar exposure to tsunami, potentially originating from the Manila Arc.2
GDP growth Thailand’s rapid GDP growth and accompanying exposure growth in the decade prior to the 2011 floods caught many by surprise. Vietnam has been growing even faster in the last ten years[3]; and exposure data quality (completeness and accuracy) have not necessarily kept up with this development.
Industrialization and global supply chain relevance Many underestimated the significance Thailand played in the global supply chain; for example, in 2011 about a quarter of all hard disk drives were produced in Thailand. Currently, Vietnam is undergoing the same rapid industrialization. For example, Samsung opened yet another multi-billion dollar industrial facility in Vietnam, propelling the country to the forefront of mobile phone production and increasing its significance to the global supply chain.

Implications for the Insurance Industry

In light of these similarities and the strong impact that global warming will have on Vietnam[4], regulators and (re)insurers are now facing several challenges and opportunities:

Modeling of perils and technical writing of business needs to be at the forefront of every executive’s mind for any mid-to long-term business plan. While this is not something that can be implemented overnight, the first steps have been taken, and it’s just a matter of time to get there.

But to get there as quickly and efficiently as possible, another crucial step stone must be taken: to improve exposure data quality in Vietnam. Better exposure insights in Thailand would almost certainly have led to a better understanding of exposure accumulations and could have made a significant difference post floods, resulting in less financial and reputational damage to many (re)insurers.

As insurance veterans know, it’s not a question of if a large scale NatCat event will happen in Vietnam, but a question of when. And while it’s not possible to fully eliminate the element of surprise in NatCat events, the severity of these surprise can be reduced by having better exposure data and exposure management in place.

This is where the real opportunity and challenge lies for Vietnam: getting better exposure insights to be able to mitigate risks. Ultimately, any (re)insurer wants to be in a confident position when someone poses this question: “Do you understand your exposures in Vietnam?”

RMS recognizes the importance of improving the quality and management of exposure data: Over the past twelve months, RMS has released exposure data sets for Vietnam and many other territories in the Asia-Pacific. To find out more about the RMS® Asia Exposure data sets, please e-mail asia-exposure@rms.com.  

[1] Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_length_of_coastline
[2] Please refer to the RMS® Global Tsunami Scenario Catalog and the RMS® report on Coastlines at Risk of Giant Earthquakes & Their Mega-Tsunami, 2015
[3] The World Bank: http://data.worldbank.org/country/vietnam, last accessed: 1 July 2015
[4] Vietnam ranks among the five countries to be most affected by global warming, World Bank Country Profile 2011: http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportalb/doc/GFDRRCountryProfiles/wb_gfdrr_climate_change_country_profile_for_VNM.pdf