Wine Country Wildfire Progression and Loss Estimate

Kevin Van Leer, senior product manager – Model Product Management, RMS

22:00 UTC Thursday, October 12

Image Credit: AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli

After four days of active burning throughout the wine growing regions of Northern California, there are still eight fires threatening both lives and significant amounts of exposure. Conditions conducive to fire ignition and spread persist, and have resulted in extreme fire behavior, especially during the nights of Sunday, October 8, and Wednesday, October 11, in which strong, dry Diablo winds were observed. In total, over 100,000 acres have been burned in Napa, Sonoma, and Solano counties alone, with several additional fires ongoing throughout the state of California.

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Looking Beyond the Catch-all “Cyber” Category

The mass production of the internal combustion engine facilitated many new kinds of insurable damage and loss. It also provided opportunities to extend and expand older forms of crime. Before cars, robbers were reduced to committing burglary within their own town or village, potentially aided by a speedy horse. Cars took these crimes to a new level. Cars facilitated “smash-and-grab” raids on banks, and kidnap and ransom, grabbing the unfortunate victim on the street and hustling them into the back of the car. Cars facilitated rapid getaway after any kind of attack, whatever the motivation — sabotage, vandalism, revenge. And that is before all the causes of loss associated with cars themselves, such as hit-and-run, manslaughter, dangerous driving, or speeding.

The term “car crime” relates specifically to the robbery of the car or its contents, or otherwise damaging the car — we would not consider lumping together all these different ways in which the car has facilitated losses and crimes under a single heading.

So why does it make sense to lump together all those varieties of crime and loss facilitated by another quantum leap in communications, through computing and the Internet? Because that is what we currently do when it comes to the use of the catch-all term “cyber”.

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Rapidly Spreading Wildfires Impact Northern California Wine Country

Kevin Van Leer, senior product manager – Model Product Management, RMS

17:00 UTC Tuesday, October 10

Figure 1: Neighborhood near Coffey Park in Santa Rosa, California. Image credit: Golden Gate California Highway Patrol

Driven by Diablo wind gusts of up to 70 miles per hour (112 kilometers per hour) and with very low relative humidity, 14 fires burning across swaths of eight Northern California counties have resulted in significant property damage and loss of life.

These strong winds caused the fires to spread quickly. The Tubbs Fire, located just north of Santa Rosa, grew from 200 acres on Sunday night (October 8) to over 20,000 acres by Monday morning (October 9) and is now over 27,000 acres. As of 4 p.m. Pacific Time (PT) on Monday, October 9, the Tubbs Fire together with the Atlas Peak Fire, located just north of Napa, combined have destroyed over 50,000 acres of land, and impacted several wineries along with high value residential and commercial structures. So far, 1,500 structures are reportedly destroyed, making this at least the fifth most destructive fire in California history as shown in the table below.

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Hurricane Nate: Two Sides of the Story

22:00 UTC Saturday, October 7

Michael Kozar, senior modeler – Model Development, RMS

Hurricane Nate continues to race towards the central Gulf Coast today. The hurricane has become significantly better organized in the last several hours, and now has maximum sustained winds in excess of 90 miles per hour (144 kilometers per hour) based on the RMS HWind snapshot at 18:00 UTC today. This surface wind analysis is based upon data collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters in addition to some surface and satellite-based observations.

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Tropical Storm Nate: Latest HWind Track Probability Analysis

01:00 UTC Saturday, October 7

Michael Kozar, senior modeler – Model Development, RMS

The latest track probability analysis of the current model forecasts has been released by the RMS HWind team, based on forecast models initialized at 12:00 UTC Friday, October 6. Using this new proprietary track forecast probability product from RMS HWind provides unique insight into the likelihood of where a storm might go, and helps to deliver insights beyond what is available from public sources.

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RMS HWind and Earth Networks: Sharpening the Focus on Tropical Cyclone Wind Hazard

Jeff Waters, product manager – Model Product Management, RMS

Mark Hoekzema, chief meteorologist, Earth Networks

As we have already seen during the 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season, tropical cyclones such as Harvey, Irma, and Maria cause an array of impacts to homes, businesses, and people, each with varying drivers of damage and recovery timelines. The resulting effects from these and other events reinforce the importance and value of preparedness and responsiveness when managing hurricane risk.

Having an accurate view of the extent and severity of hurricane hazard is imperative in informing effective event response strategies — both throughout a real-time event, and for efficient claims management processes afterwards. It can help insurers anticipate claims locations, counts and overall impacts to their book, where power outages and business interruption are likely to occur, where to deploy claims adjusters of various experience levels, and identify where fraudulent claims are likely (or unlikely) to occur.

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How Can We “Build Back Better” After the Disaster?

Although tragic for everyone involved, some good can come from a devastating disaster as it does provide a unique opportunity to transform the building stock, and to “build back better”. Typically, many structures will have been demolished, or need to be removed. There will also be funding, whether it is via insurance payments, assistance grants and even international aid, to help support improvements. From an island in the Caribbean to a city in central Mexico, we could now institute these profound upgrades, so that for any repeat earthquake or hurricane, the damage and losses will be much reduced. Ironically, a disaster creates the best of all times to make improvements.

There is one small problem.

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Canada Earthquake: A Shifting Landscape

This blog is a reprint of an article published in Canadian Underwriter

New insights often challenge the established view. The view of earthquakes in Canada is changing, including shifts in the seismic risk within the greater Metro Vancouver area and in the balance of seismic risk between the east and west.

Starting with Metro Vancouver, insured seismic risk was previously viewed as being more heavily concentrated in the city proper, given the exposure concentration, including a prevalence of high-value buildings. But based on insights, the product of a new RMS model focused on earthquake risk in Canada, it appears insured seismic risk is driven more by exposure in the expansive region to the south of Vancouver, which straddles the main arm of the Fraser River.

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Calculating the Insured Loss After Maria

Michael Young, Head of Americas Climate Model Product Management, RMS

The story of Hurricane Maria, the thirteenth named storm of the 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season, really started with landfall over Dominica on Tuesday, September 19 — as a category 5 hurricane. It was then Puerto Rico’s turn. As Maria approached, the system did weaken slightly during an eyewall replacement cycle, and made landfall on Wednesday, September 20, near Yabucoa, as a category 4 hurricane. It was the most intense landfalling hurricane for the island since the 1928 San Felipe Segundo Hurricane, with RMS HWind reporting maximum sustained winds of 130 miles per hour (209 kilometers per hour).

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Maria: What Is the Impact on Industry in Puerto Rico?

Peter Datin, senior principal modeler, RMS

Rajkiran Vojjala, vice president – Model Development, RMS

Last week, Hurricane Maria churned across Puerto Rico with the strongest winds to hit the island in over 80 years. Puerto Rico is home to more than 50 percent of the world’s leading pharmaceutical and life science companies, which operate around 80 U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved manufacturing plants on the island. Therefore, the impact of Maria on the industrial line of business not only influences the overall losses experienced in the event, but critically has many ramifications for Puerto Rico’s long-term economic recovery.

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