With Exceedance 2017 coming March 20 to 23, RMS has announced an impressive line-up of keynote speakers ready to provide their insights, ideas and inspiration to help attendees jumpstart their planning and adoption of new RMS solutions and model updates.
The ten keynotes cover a wide range of topics, including:
The Future of Modeling Powered by the RMS(one)® Platform: With the modeling base expanding to encompass new classes, speakers reveal the latest science and industry-leading advances in tools and data analytics, that will deliver breakthroughs in operational efficiency and business agility.
Risk management innovations for cyber, liability, global accumulation and exposure, and more.
Creating resilience in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and the efforts that were made to rebuild Louisiana and New Orleans.
Dr. Robert T. Reville, president and CEO, Praedicat
Hjörtur Thráinsson, modeling expert at Munich Re
Jeffrey P. Hebert, deputy mayor of New Orleans and the city’s first chief resilience officer
Tanya Harris, community outreach manager, Make It Right Foundation
Hemant Shah, RMS co-founder and CEO
Leading RMS experts including Dr. Robert Muir Wood, Dr. Andrew Coburn, and others.
Along with these keynote speakers, this year’s Exceedance will see more than 20 guest speakers share their insights, with experts and opinion formers from across the industry.
Throughout Exceedance, there will be many opportunities for interaction with model experts, up-close team training, networking opportunities, and so much more. In The Lab over 50 RMS scientists and modelers will offer technical insights and training – and can meet clients one-to-one for personalized support.
Exceedance 2017 will be here in three weeks. Make your plans to join us!
With the upcoming releases of Risk Modeler on the RMS(one) platform and Version 17 in April, this is an important year for RMS and our clients. If you’re not already attending, register for Exceedance now and experience 22 tracks, 105 sessions, and engage with 250 RMS experts – it’s four days of support and enablement to maximize success for you and your team!
For complete information on the keynote speakers, tracks and sessions, and The Lab, visit the conference website: exceedance.rms.com. Look for our next blog with more exciting Exceedance updates in the coming weeks!
It’s hard to believe but Exceedance 2017 will be here in just a few weeks, and the excitement is building!
Many companies are sending their cross-functional teams to fast track their ability to put new capabilities to work. And with good reason. With the releases of Risk Modeler on the RMS(one)® platform and Version 17 in April, attendees will experience more tracks (22) and more sessions (105) than in previous years.
There will also be many opportunities for interaction with model experts, up close team training, networking opportunities, and so much more. Enabling your success is the driving force behind Exceedance!
Here are some highlights of the topics we are preparing for you and your team:
Risk Modeler powered by RMS(one): You will obtain a deep understanding of the modeling and analytics that provide the core of the Risk Modeler workflow, including setting up analyses, creating structures and positions, and accessing models from multiple RiskLink® versions for key use cases such as change management, modeling reinsurance programs, and analyzing insurance portfolios.
Version 17 North America Earthquake: The changes to the North America Earthquake Models represent the latest view of risk across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. We will provide the full scope of the update by delving into the model components, including our unique implementation of the latest source models from the USGS, directional loss changes by region and line of business, and detailed loss change exhibits.
Event Response: How did your business respond to Hurricane Matthew? Learn what we are doing to enhance RMS Event Response, including future offerings, making it work for your business, addressing the main challenges faced during a real-time event like Hurricane Matthew, and more.
U.S. Flood Model: Flood risk management is becoming an increasingly important peril to manage for the insurance industry in the U.S. We’ll provide the latest details on all model components, including the simulation-based model methodology, the innovative vulnerability components of the upcoming RMS U.S. Flood HD Model, and how best to capture opportunities in the evolving U.S. flood market.
The Lab at Exceedance: Solutions, Model Releases, and In-Depth Training with RMS Experts
The Lab will be packed with our latest modeling and software releases, in addition to special areas dedicated to research from Horizons (RMS scientific publication) and resilience initiatives across the globe. Over 50 RMS scientists and modelers will be in The Lab to offer technical insights, training, and support – and will be available for personalized discussions.
There’s a Lot to Be Excited About
This is an important year for all of us in the industry, and RMS is ready to meet our commitments to you as we remain on track for a full schedule of delivery throughout 2017. If you’re attending, be sure to let your colleagues know about all Exceedance has to offer.
To see the full agenda with information about the tracks and sessions, The Lab, speakers, networking events, and more, visit the conference website at: exceedance.rms.com. You can also register for Exceedance here. Look for our next blog with more exciting Exceedance updates in the coming days!
As our event team and subject matter experts continue preparing for Exceedance 2017 in New Orleans on March 20-23, we have announced the sessions for this year’s event.
With the release of Risk Modeler on the RMS(one)® platform and the Version 17 models in April, the Exceedance 2017 agenda is strongly focused on providing attendees with training and enablement that will strengthen their company’s operational effectiveness, agility, and resilience, and create new growth for their business.
Twenty-two tracks with 105 Sessions Focused on Software, Model Releases, and More
Each of the 22 tracks provide a deep dive into our 2017 modeling and software releases. Attendees will have the unique opportunity to learn, train, and interact with RMS and industry experts. They’ll come away with actionable insights into new model releases and software updates.
Selected track highlights include:
Version 17 North Atlantic Hurricane Model changes. The Version 17 North Atlantic Hurricane Model update spans from the Caribbean to Hawaii. It incorporates RMS reconnaissance and local market studies across regions, plus additional updates in the U.S. This track will hone in on the advances made since Version 15.
Version 17 North America Earthquake Model changes. The changes to the North America Earthquake Model are the most important in a decade and deliver the latest view of earthquake risk across three countries. Understanding the model changes will be critical to ensuring that today’s view of risk is brought to market in a timely manner.
New tools and solutions to help own your view of risk. Today’s view of risk is ever-evolving, and this track will focus on new solutions, tools, and key insights to address key market needs, including using RiskAssessor™ with Version 17 models.
High-definition modeling capabilities. High-definition (HD) models deliver the latest science and modeling capabilities beyond those currently available in the industry. Attendees can get hands-on with new HD models and understand the valuable enhancements they provide.
Exposure data, financial structures and positions on the RMS(one) platform. Learn how to manage your exposure data and financial structures and positions on the RMS(one) platform.
If you would like to learn more about all 105 sessions there’s more information here. To register for Exceedance, click here.
With 22 tracks, 105 sessions, and many opportunities to engage with RMS and industry experts to discuss your business imperatives and strategies, Exceedance 2017 is not to be missed. This year’s event offers the chance to join the discussion, learn more than ever before, and get a head start in the marketplace. Look for our next blog in the coming days!
On December 7, 2016, a shallow magnitude 6.5 earthquake struck northern Sumatra in Indonesia, severely damaging or destroying more than ten thousand homes and many businesses, as well as causing over a hundred deaths. The disaster struck a poorer area away from the major cities, where the standards of building design, construction methods, and material quality are not sufficient to withstand such an earthquake.
USGS Shake map for Mw 6.5 Earthquake
We have up-to-date research on local building design and construction practices in Indonesia, which we have incorporated into the latest version of the RMS® Indonesia Earthquake Model. This research was done last year when members of the RMS vulnerability team, including me, visited southeast Asia as part of the process to update the model. We held workshops with local earthquake engineering experts who practice there, and attended an earthquake engineering conference, as well as visiting commercial and industrial buildings, including those under construction, to see first-hand how they were designed and built.
A workshop with local experts
International Conference – Jogja Earthquake in Reflection (May, 2016)
This on-the-ground research provided insights into Indonesia’s rules and practices around construction, seismic design, code enforcement, as well as information on the relative quantities of different types of buildings in the country. We discovered significant differences between mainstream construction and those buildings covered by earthquake insurance, namely:
Past earthquakes have demonstrated that single family dwellings and/or low rise buildings are the most vulnerable building types compared to those built for commercial and industrial use, because of a lack of engineering design, poor construction, and lower material quality.
Buildings outside of major cities are mostly low rises and they may not be designed for earthquake risk.
Major cities such as Jakarta, Bandung, and Surabaya enforce a strict structural design review process for the construction of mid- and high-rise buildings.
Insurance penetration rates are higher for commercial and industrial buildings in and near major cities, with much lower penetration for residential properties in rural areas.
It’s perhaps not surprising that if poorer communities have less insurance protection, that they also cannot afford to invest in the higher quality construction that is designed to better withstand earthquakes. This is one of the primary reasons for the ‘protection gap’. As these countries become more developed, there’s the potential for that gap to start closing. In fact, Indonesia is one of the fastest growing economies in southeast Asia, with the property insurance and (re)insurance market expanding rapidly.
But as the earthquake disaster demonstrated, there are still many poorer regions with low insurance penetration which are also prone to repeated natural disasters. Sadly, there is still a long way to go before people in those places benefit from the resilience in their built environment which other, richer parts of the world may take for granted.
Welcome to the first in a series of blogs leading up to Exceedance 2017, March 20-23.
We’re looking forward to the event, which will be held at the Hyatt Regency New Orleans. Situated less than a mile from the historic French Quarter, and about a mile-and-a-half from Jackson Square, it’s a great location in the heart of the ‘Big Easy.’
This year’s theme, ‘Create Resilience,’ reflects the strength and spirit of New Orleans, including the tremendous progress made in the ten years since the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina. Exceedance 2017 will emphasize how innovation, analytics, and ingenuity can create more resilience in our global catastrophe risk management practices.
Hands-On Training for Risk Modeler on the RMS(one) Platform and Version 17
With the release of Risk Modeler on the RMS(one)® platform and Version 17 upcoming in April, this year’s Exceedance schedule is focused on training and enablement. It’s the only place to get key insights into these new RMS releases – and be trained to assess risk more effectively.
Exceedance will feature over 22 speakers and provide many opportunities to dive deep into more than 20 new models, including North America Earthquake, North Atlantic Hurricane, and major advances in science, software, and HD-simulation models.
The agenda is designed to provide attendees with all the information they need for our new solutions developed for a rapidly changing market. Solutions that will increase operational effectiveness, agility, resilience, and business growth.
Take Some Time to Have Some Fun
Along with experiencing all there is to see and learn at Exceedance, there are plenty of opportunities to relax and have some fun with the following pre-conference activities:
Golf at TPC Louisiana: Enjoy a round at TPC Louisiana, rated one of Golfweek’s “Best Courses You Can Play.” It’s a great place for you and your colleagues to experience a one-of-a-kind day on a championship golf course.
Tour the Lower 9th Ward: Join the Make It Right Foundation for a walking tour of the Lower 9th Ward. You’ll experience first-hand how innovative partnerships and community-led design sessions are transforming the neighborhood that was most devastated by Hurricane Katrina.
Horse-Drawn Carriage Ride and Cooking Class: Journey through the French Quarter by carriage, where you’ll pass through the city’s eighteenth- and nineteenth-century French and Spanish architecture. Then, satisfy your appetite with chef extraordinaire Amy Sins who will guide you through an interactive culinary experience that ends with a delectable meal.
Spirits and Spirits – an Evening Tour: Take a guided evening stroll through the spooky side of the old French Quarter. You’ll hear tales from the city’s storied history, and perhaps even encounter a ghost or two. Then enjoy local cocktail favorites at one of New Orleans’s oldest restaurants, a former Spanish armory.
To learn more about these events, visit the Exceedance website. If you’re ready to register, fill out your form.
Exceedance will be here soon, so look for our next blog in two weeks. It will include the latest information on the session tracks and content, as well as details of the keynote speakers.
Exposure Manager, the first solution on the RMS(one)® platform, launched in July and has created great momentum in the market.
Insurance and reinsurance firms using Exposure Manager gain a clearer view of risk accumulations. With insight into their diverse set of exposures in both modeled and non-modeled regions, they are able to better manage exposure concentrations, and can help avoid private catastrophes.
Today, we announced that Mitsui Sumitomo Marine Management has chosen Exposure Manager to strengthen its risk accumulation management, taking a “big data” approach for dynamic exposure management. They are among the first in a wave of companies to adopt Exposure Manager to minimize blind spots in their risk portfolios.
Since July, we’ve been previewing some of the other solutions due out on the RMS(one) platform – from one-on-one meetings with clients leading all the way up to the main stage at Exceedance 2017 (registration is now open!). Our customers are in various stages of evaluating and adopting RMS(one) solutions and are excited to capitalize on the advantages that these solutions will bring.
As one of the many ways we are helping customers along their adoption journeys, we recently held our first Hack Event, Powered by RMS(one). Our customers in the London market attended a full-day session to understand their options, choose the right solution for their business goals, and map out adoption strategies. Due to the event’s success, we will be holding additional Hack Events in the coming months as we march toward releases for a full suite of solutions on the RMS(one) platform.
We will share more as customers continue to implement solutions on the RMS(one) platform and realize business benefits as we all work toward a common goal of building a more resilient global society.
Exposure Manager is a risk management solution that provides executives, underwriters, risk analysts, and other decision-makers with the exposure analytics needed to offer a comprehensive view of risk and understand loss potential.
As the first solution released on the RMS(one) platform, Exposure Manager was developed based on the understanding that organizations not only need quick and reliable assessments of exposure concentrations, but also the right tools to ensure they can access key metrics and insights.
The videos below illustrate two of the important capabilities that enhance users’ ability to build portfolio intuition faster and quickly access the metrics that are most important.
Build Portfolio Intuition Faster provides insights into how Exposure Manager enables customers to quickly and efficiently derive deeper portfolio insights using an intuitive and user-friendly interface.
With a customizable interface that conveys the information that’s most important to the user, Exposure Manager’s analytics, enabled by an intuitive best-in-class user experience, can be configured without knowledge of SQL or support from IT.
This enhances the ability for customers to create quick insights into their portfolio or perform a deep dive into their book to make quick assessments.
Access Metrics That Matter shows how Exposure Manager leverages the RMS financial model to provide an exposed limit metric. This offers a consistent view of loss potential to enable precise identification of loss drivers.
The flexible interface provides users with precise control to quickly make informed decisions about their book and help identify threats and opportunities in the portfolio.
All of these benefits allow customers to become more incisive about their portfolio.
Hurricane Matthew aptly demonstrated that slight shifts in a tropical cyclone’s timing, track, and wind field extent can make a huge difference in its overall impact to exposures at risk.
As Matthew bore down on the U.S. after devastating Haiti, it had the makings of another industry-altering event. Had the storm made landfall along the Florida coast, likely as a category 4 storm, insured losses could have been ten times larger than the $1.5 billion to $5 billion range that is currently projected by RMS.
Given that Matthew’s strongest winds were confined to a small area within its inner core, its path proved to be critical. A difference in track of just a few dozen miles translated to a material reduction in wind impacts along the coastline and into interior portions of Florida. The fact that the storm stayed just offshore helped to minimize overall damages significantly throughout the state and the (re)insurance industry at large.
Storms like Matthew signify the importance of being able to track dynamic tropical cyclone characteristics, position, and damage potential accurately as the storm unfolds in order to help communities and businesses adequately prepare and respond.
There is a wealth of public and private data to inform real-time tropical cyclone wind field assessments and event response processes, but some data provides more insight than others. Commonly used public sources include worldwide and national tropical cyclone centers, numerical weather prediction models, and numerous forecast offices or research organizations.
In the U.S., one of the better-known public sources for tropical cyclone data is the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida. A branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the NHC provides a range of tropical cyclone data, tools, analyses, and forecasts to inform real-time tropical cyclone assessments in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins.
There are also private sources of tropical cyclone wind field data that span a wide breadth and depth of useful information, few of which provide insight that goes beyond what is provided by the NHC.
One exception to that is HWind, formally known as HWind Scientific. Acquired by RMS in 2015, the provider of tropical cyclone wind field data develops observation-based data products for both real-time and historical wind field analyses in the Atlantic, East Pacific, and Central Pacific Basins.
During a real-time event, HWind provides regularly-derived snapshots of wind field conditions leading up to and following landfall, as well as post-event wind hazard footprints 1-3 days after the storm impacts land. Each analysis is informed by access to an observational data network spanning more than 30 land, air, and sea-based platforms, all of which are subject to stringent independence and quality control testing.
On average, tens of thousands of observations are used for each event, depending on the availability and the storm’s proximity to land.
Figure 1: GIF animation of all RMS HWind snapshots for Hurricane Matthew (September 28 through October 9, 2016). Wind is represented as maximum 1-minute sustained winds over open water for marine exposure, and over open terrain over land.
HWind products tend to represent wind hazard characteristics with more frequency, accuracy, and granularity than many publically available sources, including the NHC.
From a frequency perspective, HWind snapshots are created and refreshed as often as every three hours throughout the event as soon as aircraft reconnaissance begins, allowing users to track changing storm conditions as the event evolves.
The data also discerns important factors such as storm location with a high degree of granularity and precision, often correcting for center-position errors and biases that are evident in some observational data sources, or adjusting wind speeds to account for the impact of terrain.
Each snapshot also includes a high-resolution representation of local wind speeds and hazard bands.
Figure 2: Preliminary wind hazard footprint for Hurricane Matthew (2016) based on the NHC (left) and RMS HWind (right), where winds are represented as maximum 1-minutes sustained in kts (left) and mph (right).
During events like Hurricane Matthew and the events that are yet to come, private sources like HWind can provide additional and timely insight needed to understand the aspects of wind hazard that matter most to a (re)insurer’s business and event response processes.
Using this information, risk managers can more accurately quantify exposure accumulations at risk during or immediately following landfall. Crucially, this allows them to anticipate the potential severity of loss claims with more precision, and position claims adjusters or recovery assets more effectively.
Collectively, it could mean the difference between being proactive vs. reactive when the next event strikes.
Hurricane Matthew is currently moving along the Florida coast with high winds, heavy rain, and a large surge. But as early as three days ago RMS clients were estimating their exposed limit in the path of the storm. How was that analysis generated?
On Thursday October 6 an RMS Exposure Manager analysis of the RMS 2011 Industry Exposure Database (IED) was performed. It found approximately $2.77 trillion of total insured value (TIV) exists within ZIP codes that had a five percent likelihood of experiencing hurricane-force winds – as forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) while the storm was still a long way from the U.S. coast.
Clients were able to feed in insights from the RMS Event Response team to understand the breadth of potential industry losses. Even based on these early forecasts, it was clear this could be a significant event, as you can see from these videos.
Description: An accumulation analysis is performed against the RMS Wind IED based upon a view of postal codes, as of October 6, that have 5% probability or greater of experiencing hurricane force wind.
But whilst understanding how much the industry is exposed is important to a portfolio manager, understanding how much their own organization could lose is critical. This next video shows how clients used RMS Event Response output on October 6, two days before projected landfall, to quickly produce a range of exposed limit estimates by applying varying damage factors. With this insight, clients could understand how much exposure they have within the path of the storm using the RMS Financial Model in Exposure Manager.
Description: An accumulation analysis is performed against an E&S portfolio to calculate exposed limits using various damage ratios based upon a view of postal codes, as of October 6, that have 5% probability or greater of experiencing hurricane force wind.
Description: An accumulation analysis is performed against an E&S portfolio to calculate exposed limits using a shape file from the National Hurricane Center, which shows areas potentially affected by hurricane force surface winds (1-minute average <= 74mph) banded by probability.
We are back in sunny Miami, FL for Exceedance 2016 and ready for a week of engaging sessions, invigorating discussion, and plenty of networking opportunities.
If you’re joining us again here at the Fontainebleau Hotel, meet us in the Fleur De Lis Ballroom tonight at 5:30 p.m. for the Welcome Reception. If you were unable to make it this year, follow the highlights as we share on Twitter and LinkedIn, and here on the RMS Blog for #Exceedance news, insights, and photos.
Over the course of three days we have more than 60 sessions across six different tracks, so there is no shortage of thought-provoking content and discussions to be had. Download the mobile app to help you manage your schedule and maximize your week.
Here are a few highlights as you plan out your week:
This year, our lineup of keynote speakers includes:
Professor Bruce Hoffman, terrorism and security expert
Tim Jarvis, environmental scientist, author, adventurer
Matt Olsen, a president and co-founder, IronNet Cybersecurity
Hemant Shah, RMS Co-founder and CEO
Robert Muir-Wood, RMS Chief Research Officer
Emily Paterson, RMS Event Response Lead
Mark Powell, VP and Founder, HWind
Emily Grover-Kopec, VP, Model Product Strategy
Arno Hilberts, Senior Director, Global Flood Models
Shree Khare, Senior Director, Asia Models
Chris Folkman, Director, Marine and Terrorism Models
Tom Harvey, Product Manager, Cyber Models
The Lab: During breakfast and lunch, be sure to stop by The Lab to meet RMS experts and learn latest about RiskAssessor, RiskLink® version 16, Hosting Plus, and much more. Looking for some hands-on exercise? Join us to assemble 50 partially built bikes for donation to several Miami-based charities.
“EP” – The Exceedance Party: This year’s EP will be a vision in white, inspired by retro Miami and Fontainebleau’s heyday. Join us in Glimmer Ballroom to show off your dance moves to a five-piece band and DJ while enjoying specialty cocktails, lively conversations, delicious bites, a candy bar, photo booth, and more!
We’re excited to see you in Miami and are looking forward to a great week ahead!