Wildfires are once again raging across California, this time focused in the southern part of the state. Prior to the ignitions, weather forecasts called for a significant Santa Ana wind event from Monday (December 4) through Thursday evening (December 7), driven by a high-pressure system across the western United States. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center noted in their Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook valid for Monday, December 4, that, “A very strong surface pressure gradient… coupled with strong low-level northeasterly flow will easily support sustained offshore winds of 30-40 miles per hour (48-64 kilometers per hour) across parts of Ventura into Los Angeles counties beginning later this evening and continuing through early Tuesday morning. Wind gusts of 60-80 mph (96-128 km/h) will be possible across the mountains/foothills of these counties where channeling and terrain effects can locally enhance the already strong flow, with gusts of 45-60 mph (72-96 km/h) likely at lower elevations.”
Time is tight for the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). A three-month extension of the NFIP signed by President Donald Trump to help devise a long-term financial solution for the program, expires on December 8. In the lower chamber of Congress, the 21st Century Flood Reform Act, which would update and reauthorize the NFIP, was passed (237-189) by the U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday, November 14. The fate of the scheme now rests with the Senate, allowing just over three weeks in total to make a choice; adopt the House bill or a version of it; advance its own bill, or simply do nothing.
Congress has an opportunity to reform the NFIP; to build a public-private partnership and transfer risk to the private insurance sector. This bill both entices private insurance firms into flood underwriting, and provides more power to the consumer to quantify and manage their own flood risk.
December is fast approaching, and in much of North America and Europe the crisp days and golden colors of autumn are giving way to a world of sparkling lights, frenzied shoppers, and the sense of merriment that comes with the onset of the festive period. At this time of year, an equally marked transition takes place within the catastrophe risk management community, as the Atlantic hurricane season closes and attention shifts to the onset of the December to February (or, in meteorological parlance, DJF) peak season for European windstorm risk.
However, three notable early season wind events have already impacted Europe during the earlier part of this current windstorm season. These are windstorm Xavier (October 5; Germany, Poland, and Czech Republic), ex-hurricane Ophelia (October 16; Ireland), and windstorm Herwart (October 29; Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Austria). The earliest of these, Xavier, formed just one day after the Category Five Hurricane Maria dissipated — at a time when the attention of the global insurance market was firmly focused on the other side of the Atlantic.
You may have noticed recent headlines making some scary apocalyptic 2018 earthquake predictions. Scientific thinking generally evolves slowly and thoughtfully. A headline that proclaims a revolutionary or shocking change in our understanding of earthquakes is likely overstating the certainty of a hypothesis, or may be a misinterpretation that is sensationalized by the media. In such cases, it is always best to go back to the original source of information.
These headlines are based on an article published back in August in Geophysical Research Letters entitled Do Weak Global Stresses Synchronize Earthquakes?
On Thursday April 6, 2017, President Trump ordered a Tomahawk missile attack on a Syrian military airfield. This was a direct response to President Assad’s use of sarin gas to attack Syrian dissidents. Just two days later, the password to an encrypted archive of cyber weapons (stolen from the U.S. National Security Agency) was posted by the so-called Shadow Brokers cyber group. This hacking group is thought to have connections with Russia, which is the leading supporter of the Assad regime. They were angered by President Trump’s action.
An immediate beneficiary of this password release was the Lazarus Group, linked with North Korea, which had been launching ransomware attacks at targets over the previous several months. What they lacked was an effective tool to propagate their ransomware from computer to computer. This missing tool, a Microsoft Windows bug called “EternalBlue”, they now were gifted thanks to Shadow Brokers.
Was Hurricane Irma in Florida a fire drill for the insurance-linked securities (ILS) and collateralized reinsurance markets — or was this the real thing? In terms of losses, what happened is at the lower end of what the Irma loss in Florida could have become. But what if some of the stuffing had not been knocked out of the storm in Cuba, and if Irma had landed on either the east or west Florida coasts instead of lumbering into the Everglades?
If Irma was a fire drill, then one topic it has highlighted is that faced by “trapped collateral”.
As is usual in the weeks following a hurricane’s impact on land, much of the focus surrounding Hurricane Maria has now shifted away from estimating losses with models to surveying the actual damage and claims incurred. With the collection of claims and losses, evaluating the array of loss estimates published by catastrophe model vendors in Maria’s immediate aftermath will begin. Included in this array is the RMS best estimate of insured loss, a range between US$15 billion and US$30 billion.
On September 19, the Mw7.1 “Puebla” earthquake struck Mexico City and surrounding states, causing the most fatalities (369) and damage of any temblor since the Michoacán event in 1985. The Mexican government has not yet published overall economic or insured loss tallies, but six days after the earthquake RMS publicly released an estimate of economic property losses between US$4 billion to US$8 billion and no more than US$1.2 billion in insured property losses.
To better understand the impact of this event, RMS sent a reconnaissance team to the affected region from October 1 to October 6. The RMS team spent most of the trip surveying sites in Mexico City but also visited Cuernavaca, Puebla de Zaragoza, and other cities in the states of Morelos and Puebla that were closer to the epicenter than the capital (Figure 1). This blog shares some of the key observations made by the RMS team.
At the start of the RMS Exceedance conference in New Orleans in March this year, I was interviewed for A.M. Best TV on terrorism risk, and specifically asked what I was envisaging for future terrorist attacks.
I replied that terrorists have been thwarted in their ability to produce large explosives for vehicle bombs, and are likely to use vehicles for ramming groups of people. Less than a day later, on March 22, 2017, such an attack took place on Westminster Bridge, London. Over the summer, several other terrorist vehicle ramming attacks have occurred in London, and one in Barcelona.
Known indicators point to stormier conditions in the North Atlantic this winter. However, what this means for Europe windstorm losses is much less certain.
Our ability to understand and forecast variability of North Atlantic winter storminess continues to improve year-on-year. Research highlights in 2017 include:
- A new, and skillful, empirical forecast model for winter climate in the North Atlantic revealed that sea ice concentrations in the Kara and Barents Seas are the main source of predictable winter climate variations over the past three decades. Interestingly, a separate 2017 study supports earlier forecasts of either a slowing or reversal of the sea ice reductions in the Barents and Kara Seas between now and 2020, implying an uptick in storminess over the next few years.
- An innovative tool to analyze sources of predictability in a numerical forecast model revealed strong links between tropical climate anomalies and winter climate in the North Atlantic in that model.
Twelve months ago, the forecasting indicators for the windstorm season broadly pointed to a 2016/17 season characterized by below average storminess — a forecast borne out by subsequent observations. We have already had a fairly active start to the 2017/18 season, with Windstorms Xavier, Herwart, and ex-Hurricane Ophelia causing local damage, but what is the outlook for the rest of the season?