Category Archives: Risk Modeling

China Reinsurance: Domestic or Global Expansion Both Require Risk Modeling

Paul Burgess, Client Director, Asia-Pacific, RMS

Erica Xue, Senior Product Manager – Model Development, RMS

In a country that according to the United Nations, between 1995 and 2015 experienced the largest number of natural disasters globally, and with these losses largely uninsured, China is at the start of a journey to close its protection gap between economic and insured losses — during a sustained period of rapid GDP growth. Examples such as the devastating Sichuan earthquake in 2008 which killed more than 80,000 people and caused US$125 billion in economic losses saw just 0.3 percent of losses covered by insurance. Floods in southern China during the summer of 2016 saw economic losses of US$20 billion, the second costliest event of the year. But again, according to Munich Re, just two per cent was insured.

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EXPOSURE Magazine: Looking Back, Looking Forward

The latest edition of EXPOSURE is essential reading for risk professionals, as we look back at what can be learned from last year’s events and look forward to the future including new challenges faced by the global risk management community and new opportunities to capitalize on.

EXPOSURE offers a unique perspective with a clear mission “… to provide insight and analysis to help insurance and risk professionals innovate, adapt and deliver.” And with a new North Atlantic hurricane season nearly upon us, and memories of HIM (Hurricane Harvey, Irma and Maria) fresh in the industry’s collective consciousness, EXPOSURE talks to the industry and paints a picture of a mature, responsible insurance sector that managed HIM with certainty and confidence. Cyber has also demonstrated its potential as a global systemic risk, and EXPOSURE looks at how events such as an outage of a major cloud services provider could generate economic losses as high as Superstorm Sandy.

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Exceedance: Thank You for Joining Us

Our delegates are heading for home at the end of an amazing conference, after three days packed full of insight and innovation, coupled with practical strategies that everyone can take back to their respective companies and help move forward with transformation.

It is so exciting when the global risk management community comes together for Exceedance, and we appreciate the contribution that every delegate makes to it, whether it has been in our panel sessions, our Fundamentals training or questions to our experts. And our Exceedance delegates are so enthusiastic — even after our big Exceedance Party (EP) the night before. With such a comprehensive track program over the past two days, with seven tracks and over sixty sessions, today we had repeats of some of the main track sessions, including wildfire and U.S. inland flood, with good attendances.

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Exceedance: Time to Make Risk More Transparent

As the sun shone over the Biscayne Bay at the start of the second full day at Exceedance, our keynote guest speaker, Jeff Goodell, energy and environmental expert, investigative journalist and author of numerous books including The Water Will Come asked a provocative question in his opening slide. It simply said, “Goodbye Miami?”

Jeff said that he was at home being in the company of fellow “catastrophists” and the risk management community at Exceedance, but this is not always the case. When talking about climate change and sea-level rise, he sometimes felt as if he was Richard Dreyfuss in the movie Jaws. Dreyfuss played oceanographer Matt Hooper, a character who continually warned the Mayor of Amity Island to close the beach because of the risk of shark attacks. The Mayor ignored the advice, due to the economic impact of closing the beach … but [spoiler alert] the shark kept coming. Jeff remarked that sea-level rise is the shark, and it’s bigger and more dangerous than we first anticipated.

Jeff Goodell presenting at Exceedance

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Exceedance: Client-focused Transformation

The first full day of Exceedance clearly set the direction that RMS is taking towards transformation — as a strategic partner helping clients to succeed in a time of rapid change. Karen White, chief executive officer for RMS, made her keynote debut on the Exceedance stage, sharing her background working with technology companies during similar game-changing times, and expressing her excitement of the here and know and what lies ahead.

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Welcome to Exceedance 2018

The wait is over, and we are excited to welcome delegates from around the globe to one of our largest-ever Exceedance conferences. We really appreciate everyone who has joined us in Miami, whether this is your first visit to Exceedance or if you are one of our faithful attendees. We know the commitment it takes to participate in events such as Exceedance, so the event schedule between now and Thursday lunchtime is designed to maximize your time, offering an opportunity to immerse yourself in next-generation modeling, analytics, technology, data science, and more.

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Covering All Bases: Modeling Typhoon and Non-Typhoon Driven Flood in the Philippines

In a country that is used to the regular rhythm of typhoon seasons, 2017 disrupted the pattern and was a surprisingly quiet year in terms of landfalling typhoons in the Philippines. While 26 named storms formed in the western North Pacific basin, equaling the long-term average, all other tropical cyclone statistics fell below the 1981-2010 average. Only 12 of these named storms developed into typhoons, and just four reached a strength of category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson scale. No typhoons made landfall in the Philippines during the year for only the fifth time in recorded history.

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A Few Words About Exceedance Before You Go

With Exceedance beginning in just a few days, I wanted to send a quick reminder regarding all there is to see and do, starting Monday, May 14 with our pre-conference activities.

Get Ready for This Year’s Tracks and Sessions, The Lab, Keynote Speakers, and Hands-On Training Opportunities

This year’s Exceedance agenda reflects our commitment to deliver value to clients in a rapidly changing market, including the latest advances and innovations in our science and products.

You will come away with valuable and actionable insights through this year’s keynote speakers, a variety of informative tracks and sessions, and The Lab, offering opportunities for in-depth engagement with RMS experts.

For information on the above, visit the conference website.

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Starting the Trend Toward More Differentiated Risk Selection and Pricing

There has always been a balance between cross-subsidy and property-specific, risk-based underwriting and pricing in insurance, particularly for homeowners’ policies. While an actuary can easily quantify differences in fire risk for houses constructed from wood versus concrete based on claims, this becomes much more difficult when the peril concerned is infrequent, such as for earthquake or flood. Clearly risk models help to bridge this gap, but facilitating a move from cross-subsidy to risk-based pricing is more complex than simply using risk analytics. Factors such as regulation, market conditions, distribution channels and insurer IT systems all determine whether individual insurers and markets will move towards greater differentiation of risk. This is not to mention the political dimension of insurance affordability and social equity.

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Using Catastrophe Models to Promote Resilience

Arriving in Kathmandu for the 2018 RMS Impact Trek, I was already aware of the many years that RMS has provided support for Build Change and its work in areas worst hit by catastrophic disasters. Our first day in the Build Change office was a crash course in their local objectives and challenges. Day Two saw us on a field trip to nearby Kirtipur to survey common building practices. It was a lot of information to process and it was not immediately clear to me what “impact” we could make during our short visit.

But it was later in the week — when, admittedly, the jet lag finally wore off — that I finally caught on.

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