Category Archives: disaster risk reduction

The Mysterious Mitigation Multiple

You will certainly have heard this statement:

“Investing in mitigation action to reduce disaster consequences shows benefits relative to costs multiplied by a factor of X — where X maybe four or seven, or some other number as high as 15.”

As most simply expressed in 2011 by Tom Rooney, U.S. Congressman for Florida’s 17th District “For every US$1 spent on mitigation, US$4 in post-storm cleanup and rebuilding is saved.” And you may have thought — I wonder how they calculated that? But then life is too busy to go into the details, and the statement — that investment in actions to reduce risk shows a fourfold (or sevenfold) reduction in the cost of disasters is very compelling. It implies you could go out and raise the height of a flood wall or strengthen your house and after a few years you would reap a reward in significantly reduced losses.

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Exceedance 2018: Risk Management. Transformed.

Our sixth Exceedance conference makes a welcome return to Miami, this time at the waterfront InterContinental Hotel on May 14-17, 2018. The views over the Biscayne Bay, inspiring keynotes, over 75 informative sessions, demonstrations, engagement with experts in The Lab, and networking with 700+ industry professionals are all guaranteed. What else can we guarantee at Exceedance 2018? You will leave Miami with a new perspective on risk management, as we invite you to join us for our most transformative and immersive Exceedance yet.

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Rebuilding Nepal

It has been twelve months since I first visited Nepal, spending two weeks with Build Change, an earthquake engineering charity and RMS partner, to experience first-hand the impact that they are having in the country. Back then, Nepal was only just starting to come to terms with the huge amount of reconstruction work that lay ahead after the 2015 earthquake. While there was hope that the country could “build back better” it was going to be a long, hard road ahead, as I observed in my blog in January this year.

After my first visit, I made the decision to return to this remarkable country and volunteer with Build Change for a longer period. My ambition was to become more involved in the rebuilding work, and help Build Change plan for future post-earthquake reconstruction. Since arriving I have been struck by the contradiction that although so much has progressed, a lot of the same issues are still prevalent and are holding back real change.

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How Can We “Build Back Better” After the Disaster?

Although tragic for everyone involved, some good can come from a devastating disaster as it does provide a unique opportunity to transform the building stock, and to “build back better”. Typically, many structures will have been demolished, or need to be removed. There will also be funding, whether it is via insurance payments, assistance grants and even international aid, to help support improvements. From an island in the Caribbean to a city in central Mexico, we could now institute these profound upgrades, so that for any repeat earthquake or hurricane, the damage and losses will be much reduced. Ironically, a disaster creates the best of all times to make improvements.

There is one small problem.

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EXPOSURE Magazine: Essential Insight for Changing Times

I invite you to explore the latest digital edition of EXPOSURE Magazine, which also hit the streets of Monte Carlo as a print edition for those attending Les Rendez-Vous de Septembre, and will be available at RMS events over the coming months.

There is a clear mission for EXPOSURE, which is “… to provide insight and analysis to help insurance and risk professionals innovate, adapt and deliver.” And change is in the air for all businesses in the industry, whether it is developing new opportunities, getting products to market faster, being more agile and efficient, or using data-driven insight to transform decision making.

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Set to Impact Entire West Coast of Florida, Irma Raises Significant Storm Surge Concerns

14:30 UTC  Sunday, September 10

Tom Sabbatelli, hurricane risk expert – RMS

As Hurricane Irma makes landfall in the Florida Keys as a Category 4 storm, the range of the storm’s possible future tracks in the latest RMS HWind forecast product is rapidly narrowing. It is now certain that Irma will track along Florida’s west coast and impact all major population centers from Naples to Tallahassee.

What is less certain is the length of time Irma’s center will remain over water, with some scenarios projecting a landfall near Fort Myers and others delaying the landfall until Irma reaches the state’s Big Bend region.

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Flood Risk, NFIP and the Role of Reinsurance

Shortly after its landfall, my colleague, Ben Brookes, and I drew attention in the RMS live Harvey updates to the fact that the storm was “not a wind event.” Like Sandy, flood losses, we wrote, would quickly overtake wind losses.

We recalled how Dr. Robert Muir-Wood had insisted back in February 2014 that “water is the new wind.” Those with exposure in harm’s way, he argued, needed to “get to grips with the details of modeling and managing hurricane-driven flood risk.”

It was unsurprising, then, to hear Robert on BBC World News last week describing Hurricane Harvey’s destruction as absolutely avoidable. Yes, Harvey is an extreme event. There were, however, historical precedents for stalling rain storms — and there are clear business cases for investing in resilience before extreme events, rather than just responding after.

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Unpacking Basis Risk

When catastrophe strikes, it is not unusual for the insurance payout to differ from the policyholder’s expectation. The possibility of such a discrepancy is referred to as “basis risk”. The term, however, can be ill-defined and easily misunderstood.

Therein lies the problem, without definition it is easy for the basis risk associated with a structure to remain unidentified and unquantified. If left unspoken, basis risk can lead to problems down the line, when events do occur. So, as a starting point, we can most simply define basis risk as the “difference between expectation and outcome”.

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The Politics of Basis Risk

Imagine you are a government minister responsible for disaster response. Five days have passed since the hurricane hit your country, and the floods have still not receded. Tens of thousands of your citizens have been made homeless. In the eyes of the people, the government is simply moving too slowly, and the press is baying for action. There is some reassurance though, as you know that over many years your country has paid premium into an international pooling scheme designed to provide substantial funds quickly when such a disaster strikes, to help pay some of the costs of recovery.

But then you hear from the regional multi-state insurance pool to which your finance minister has been contributing hard-fought annual premiums for the past decade. Your country is not going to receive a pay-out. In the scheme’s parametric formula, the value is below the threshold. You have discovered the toxic politics of basis risk.

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The Role of Catastrophe Risk Finance in Developing Nations

We all know that prevention is better than cure. Trouble is, sometimes you catch a cold. And if you’re already vulnerable, a relatively small infection presents a big risk – especially if you don’t have timely access to sufficient amounts of the necessary medicines.

Despite the best will in the world, nobody can stop the ground from shaking or the wind from blowing. Nobody can say that the worst-case scenario will never happen.

So, when Mother Nature strikes a vulnerable, low-income country, how bad will the ensuing humanitarian crisis likely be? What will it take financially to recover and rebuild? And is there a role for insurance along with donor aid?

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