Little more than a week ago, I signed off my previous blog post, discussing storm Eleanor/Burglind, with the following thought:
As the number of minor windstorms impacting Europe this season grows, we are left to wonder how many more “near misses” can we experience before our luck runs out?
At the time, I further noted that:
- One-day-out, the forecasts for Friederike were trending towards lower and lower severities
- As an immature and fast-moving system, these forecasts were subject to high uncertainty
- Eventual losses would be very sensitive to gust speeds experienced in urban areas near to the forecast footprint, such as Rotterdam and Dortmund
In the week since this post, it has become clear that our lucky streak has already come to an end. Storm Friederike (also named David by Météo-France) intensified towards the upper end of the forecast severities in Benelux and Germany, bringing strong gusts to highly populated areas and producing significant insurance losses.
Over the course of this winter, RMS has been publishing a series of blog posts charting the progress of the 2017/18 European windstorm season. In October last year, we outlined our forecast for a stormier-than-recent season, before checking in with an update at the end of November following three notable autumnal windstorm events. Following a relative lull in activity in December, we used the fiftieth anniversary of the “Glasgow Hurricane” as a reminder of the potential impacts when strong windstorms directly hit major urban areas.
However, at the start of 2018 this lull was broken with the arrival of storm Eleanor (U.K. Met Office/Met Éireann) / Burglind (Freie Universität Berlin), motivating us to once again check-in on the progress of the storm season. Here we outline the meteorology and impacts of this latest storm, and discuss how it fits into the seasonal forecast issued at the start of the season.
December is fast approaching, and in much of North America and Europe the crisp days and golden colors of autumn are giving way to a world of sparkling lights, frenzied shoppers, and the sense of merriment that comes with the onset of the festive period. At this time of year, an equally marked transition takes place within the catastrophe risk management community, as the Atlantic hurricane season closes and attention shifts to the onset of the December to February (or, in meteorological parlance, DJF) peak season for European windstorm risk.
However, three notable early season wind events have already impacted Europe during the earlier part of this current windstorm season. These are windstorm Xavier (October 5; Germany, Poland, and Czech Republic), ex-hurricane Ophelia (October 16; Ireland), and windstorm Herwart (October 29; Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Austria). The earliest of these, Xavier, formed just one day after the Category Five Hurricane Maria dissipated — at a time when the attention of the global insurance market was firmly focused on the other side of the Atlantic.