Author Archives: Michael Kozar

About Michael Kozar

Michael is a senior modeler on the RMS HWind team based at the Tallahassee, FL office. Michael has a bachelor's and a master's degree in Meteorology from Penn State University and a PhD in Meteorology from Florida State University. He has experience forecasting and analyzing tropical cyclone wind fields and has also studied interannual hurricane variability in the North Atlantic.

Hurricane Nate: Two Sides of the Story

22:00 UTC Saturday, October 7

Michael Kozar, senior modeler – Model Development, RMS

Hurricane Nate continues to race towards the central Gulf Coast today. The hurricane has become significantly better organized in the last several hours, and now has maximum sustained winds in excess of 90 miles per hour (144 kilometers per hour) based on the RMS HWind snapshot at 18:00 UTC today. This surface wind analysis is based upon data collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters in addition to some surface and satellite-based observations.

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Tropical Storm Nate: Latest HWind Track Probability Analysis

01:00 UTC Saturday, October 7

Michael Kozar, senior modeler – Model Development, RMS

The latest track probability analysis of the current model forecasts has been released by the RMS HWind team, based on forecast models initialized at 12:00 UTC Friday, October 6. Using this new proprietary track forecast probability product from RMS HWind provides unique insight into the likelihood of where a storm might go, and helps to deliver insights beyond what is available from public sources.

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Hurricane Maria Continues its Northward Track

09:30 UTC  Monday, September 25

Michael Kozar, senior modeler – Model Development, RMS

The latest track probability analysis of the current model forecasts for Hurricane Maria has been released by the RMS HWind team, based on forecast models initialized at 12:00 UTC Sunday, September 24. This proprietary track forecast probability product from RMS HWind provides unique insight into the likelihood of where a storm might go, to help deliver insights beyond what is available from public sources.

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The Meteorology of Irma

20:00 UTC  Monday, September 11

Michael Kozar, senior modeler – Model Development, RMS

Steering the Storm

The synoptic patterns that steered Hurricane Irma this past week were complex. Like many intense storms that originate from an African easterly wave, Irma was steered westward across the tropical North Atlantic by the subtropical high to its north. As the storm moved into the Caribbean, a deep mid-latitude trough was sliding eastward across the East Coast of United States. The trough lifted poleward as Irma approached and a ridge steered Irma further to the west through the Turks and Caicos and the southern Bahamas, rather than allowing the storm to turn to the northwest towards the Mid-Atlantic United States.

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Hurricane Irma: Latest HWind Track Probability Analysis

07:00 UTC  Saturday, September 9

Michael Kozar, senior modeler – Model Development, RMS

The latest track probability analysis of the current model forecasts has been released by the RMS HWind team, based on forecast models initialized at 12:00 UTC Friday, September 8. This new proprietary track forecast probability product from RMS HWind provides unique insight into the likelihood of where a storm might go, to help deliver insights beyond what is available from public sources.

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Latest RMS HWind Track Probability Analysis: Irma Shifts Further South and West Than Previous Forecasts

23:30 UTC  Thursday, September 7

Michael Kozar, senior modeler – Model Development, RMS

The RMS HWind team based in Tallahassee have released their latest track probability analysis of the current model forecasts. This analysis, based on forecast models initialized at 12:00 UTC today Thursday, shows that Irma’s projected path has shifted further south and west than the previous forecasts. The highest probabilities now run through southeastern Florida (as shown by the shaded data), with Miami having a nearly 60 percent chance of the storm passing within 50 nautical miles of the city.

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