Author Archives: Matthew Nielsen

About Matthew Nielsen

Senior Director of Global Governmental and Regulatory Affairs, RMS
Matthew Nielsen leads Governmental and Regulatory Affairs. He is responsible for maintaining relationships with regulators, legislators, and rating agencies on behalf of the company to establish open channels of communication around RMS models and solutions. Matthew is a meteorologist and geographer with extensive experience in North American catastrophe risk. In his prior role at RMS, he was responsible for developing the RMS climate peril models for the Americas, including the severe convective storm, winter storm, flood, and hurricane models. He has conducted field reconnaissance for major catastrophes including Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy. Before joining RMS, Matthew conducted remote sensing in satellite meteorology research at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA). He holds a BS in physics from Ripon College, where he won the Henry Knop Award in Physics, and an MS in atmospheric science from Colorado State University. Matthew is a member of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), the International Society of Catastrophe Managers (ISCM), and the American Association of Geographers (AAG).

NFIP: An Opportunity for Reform

Time is tight for the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). A three-month extension of the NFIP signed by President Donald Trump to help devise a long-term financial solution for the program, expires on December 8. In the lower chamber of Congress, the 21st Century Flood Reform Act, which would update and reauthorize the NFIP, was passed (237-189) by the U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday, November 14. The fate of the scheme now rests with the Senate, allowing just over three weeks in total to make a choice; adopt the House bill or a version of it; advance its own bill, or simply do nothing.

Congress has an opportunity to reform the NFIP; to build a public-private partnership and transfer risk to the private insurance sector. This bill both entices private insurance firms into flood underwriting, and provides more power to the consumer to quantify and manage their own flood risk.

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New Florida Flood Modeling Standards Will Help Develop the Insurance Market

Hurricane Irma has placed flooding firmly back on the agenda for Florida. Irma did affect the entire state and flooding was widespread, affecting areas from Brickell in Miami’s financial district, to the northern counties. With dire storm surge forecasts predicted for the Gulf Coast, a new storm surge record was set in Jacksonville, but places such as Tampa, St. Petersburg, Naples, and Fort Myers experienced shallower flood depths than the predictions.

Florida homeowners are more aware of flood risk than most — and are well versed in buying flood insurance. For those who live in high-risk flood areas and have a mortgage from a federally regulated or insured lender, it is a mandatory requirement to purchase flood insurance from either the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) or alternatively through a private flood insurer.

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Our Flood Insurance System is Broken. Here’s How We Fix It.

Matthew Nielsen, senior director, governmental and regulatory affairs, RMS

Daniel Stander, managing director, RMS

This blog was first published in The Hill

Breezy Point, N.Y., Oct. 31, 2012 – Street scene after Hurricane Sandy. Source: FEMA

Katrina. Sandy. Matthew. We tend to remember the big-name storms that take over the news cycle for weeks, offering up poignant images of rescued families.

Yet many of us barely notice losses racked up annually from flooding events all over the U.S.: flash floods in the Midwest and Northeast, torrential rains in bone-dry Houston, dam spillways exploding in formerly drought-stricken California.

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One Year Later: What We Learned from the Moore Tornadoes

This week marks the one-year anniversary of the severe weather outbreak that brought high winds, hail, and tornadoes to half of all U.S. states. The most damaging event in the outbreak was the Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 20, 2013. Rated at the maximum intensity of EF5, it had maximum sustained wind speeds of up to 210 mph and was the most deadly and damaging tornado of the year for both Oklahoma and the U.S., causing roughly $2 billion in insured losses.

As we reflect upon the events that have taken place in Moore, the following can be discerned:

  • Understanding severe weather risks is key: According to the RMS U.S. Severe Convective Storm Model in RiskLink 13.1, the annual likelihood of a severe weather event causing at least $1 billion in insured losses in the U.S. is 92 percent, meaning it is almost certain to occur each year. For reference, from a loss perspective, the $2 billion 2013 Moore tornado loss represented a 1-in-50-year event in Oklahoma, or an event with a 2 percent chance of occurring in a given year. Similarly, a 1-in-100-year event, or an event with a 1 percent chance of occurring in a given year, would cause $4 billion or more in insured losses for Oklahoma. Events in excess of the 1-in-100-year return period would be driven by large, destructive tornadoes hitting more concentrated urban environments, such as a direct hit on Oklahoma City. Probabilistic severe storm models provide more perspective on these types of risks, and can better prepare the industry for the “big ones.”
  • What grabs the headlines doesn’t cause the most damage: Although tornadoes get all the news coverage and are often catastrophic, hail drives roughly 60 percent of the average annual loss in convective storms. This is mainly driven by the much higher frequency of hailstorms compared to tornadoes. Hailstorms also have a much larger average footprint size.
  • Tornado Alley isn’t the only risky place: Tornado Alley drives roughly 32 percent of the average annual loss for severe convective storms in the U.S., while the Upper Midwest drives 24 percent, Texas drives 16 percent, and the Southeast drives 12 percent. Buildings in affected areas need continued upgrades: For example, the Moore city council approved 12 changes to the residential building code after the Moore tornado, including mandates for continuous plywood bracing and wind-resistant garages (often the first point of failure during weak to moderate winds).

While we can never predict exactly when severe weather will occur, it’s imperative for communities, businesses, and individuals to understand its potential impact. Doing so will help people and industries exposed to severe weather be better prepared for the next big event.

Are you located in one of the regions affected by last May’s outbreak, or in another risk-prone area? Have you been affected by any recent severe weather events? If so, what did you learn, and what changes were made in your region to safeguard the community, businesses, and homes? Please share your experience in the comment section.

Jeff Waters also contributed to this post.