Preliminary RMS Analysis of Potential Losses from Hurricane Irma

17:00 UTC  Friday, September 8 

Tom Sabbatelli, hurricane risk expert, RMS

For the last 48 hours, all the forecasts have been consistent in indicating that Hurricane Irma will have a significant impact in Florida, most likely making landfall in the state. The latest RMS HWind forecast shows it tracking more westerly than before, and this reduces the potential for loss because of the relative concentrations of exposure in the southern end of the Florida peninsula.

Based on today’s long-range forecast, RMS calculates there is still a 10 percent chance of wind losses from Irma exceeding US$85 billion. This assumes a U.S. landfall, with the scenarios in RMS modeling showing almost all of that insurance loss to be in Florida.

But the loss range in this preliminary analysis could easily move higher or lower depending on shifts in the storm track and its intensity. Irma’s anticipated direction of travel has been changing continually through the week, oscillating between both coasts of Florida. It is likely that this changeability will continue, and so the modeling uncertainties remain significant.

RMS will continue to update its analysis of potential insurance losses as Hurricane Irma moves closer to the U.S. coast.

Senior Product Manager, Model Product Management
Tom is a Senior Product Manager in the Model Product Management team, focusing on the North Atlantic Hurricane Model suite of products. He joined RMS in 2009 and spent several years in the Client Support Services organization, primarily providing specialist peril model support. Tom joined RMS upon completion of his B.S. and M.S. degrees in meteorology from The Pennsylvania State University, where he studied the statistical influence of climate state variables on tropical cyclone frequency. He is a member of the American Meteorological Society (AMS).

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