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Risk Outlooks
Risk Outlooks are parameterizations of the RMS® Probabilistic
U.S. Terrorism Model that reflect a particular view of terrorism
risk. Each Risk Outlook captures a range of information for a
particular threat group including the probability of one or more
attempted macro attacks per year, the relative likelihood of different
attack modes, and the relative likelihood of a particular city or target
type being attacked. For the Risk Outlooks released in
version 2.6 of the Probabilistic Terrorism Model, the following
threat groups are parameterized:
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Al Qaeda and associated groups (e.g., Jemaah Islamiyah, Ansar
al-Islam, Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, Lashkar-e-Toiba and others) |
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Other foreign terrorist organizations (e.g., Hizballah, Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam, Euskadi Ta Askatasuna, Mujahedin-e-Khalq and
others) |
The following three Outlooks for terrorism risk were
released with the RMS® U.S. Terrorism Risk Model 2.6 in July 2007.
Each of these are parameterized through December 31, 2008 to enable a one-year insurance contract to be analyzed. RMS
Standard (2008)
Best assessment of the risk of large scale terrorism
loss in the U.S. throughout 2008 resulting from all known terrorism
threat groups.
Medium-scale conventional attacks are the predominant methods of attack
and are likely to be used in a swarm fashion (i.e., synchronous attack).
Although low, there is still a chance of a chemical, biological,
radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons attack.
Increased Threat Outlook (2008) Pessimistic
interpretations of the available intelligence imply a heightened risk
from terrorist loss in the U.S. during 2008. Attack frequency is at the
upper 90% confidence limit. Destructive attack modes with multiple
synchronous attacks are likely. The chance of CBRN attacks by Islamic
militant groups is significant. Reduced Threat
Outlook (2008) Optimistic interpretations of the
available intelligence imply a low risk of terrorist loss in the U.S.
during 2008. Attack frequency is at the lower 90% confidence limit, and
is consistent with observed Al Qaeda frequency in past decade.
Medium-scale conventional attacks are the predominant methods of attack
and there is only a small chance of a CBRN attack. Swarm attacks are
less likely than in the RMS Standard outlook.
Detailed documentation of the recommended usage and parameterization of
each of these is available in the client-only Parameterization
methodology document.
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