Risk Outlooks

Risk Outlooks are parameterizations of the RMSŪ Probabilistic Terrorism Model that reflect a particular view of terrorism risk. Each Risk Outlook captures a range of information for a particular threat group including the probability of one or more attempted macro attacks per year, the relative likelihood of different attack modes, and the relative likelihood of a particular city or target type being attacked.
For the Risk Outlooks released in the Probabilistic Terrorism Model, the following threat groups are parameterized:

	Al Qaeda and associated groups (e.g., Jemaah Islamiyah, Ansar al-Islam, Al-Shabab, Lashkar-e-Toiba and others)
	Other foreign terrorist organizations (e.g., Hizballah, Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, Euskadi Ta Askatasuna, Mujahedin-e-Khalq and others)

The following three Outlooks for terrorism risk are released with the RMSŪ Probabilistic Terrorism Model. Each of these are parameterized through the following year to enable a one-year insurance contract to be analyzed.

RMS Standard

Best assessment of the risk of large scale terrorism loss resulting from all known terrorism threat groups. Medium-scale conventional attacks are the predominant methods of attack and are likely to be used in a swarm fashion (i.e., synchronous attack). Although low, there is still a chance of a chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons attack.

Increased Threat Outlook

Pessimistic interpretations of the available intelligence imply a heightened risk from terrorist loss.. Attack frequency is at the upper 90% confidence limit. Destructive attack modes with multiple synchronous attacks are likely. The chance of CBRN attacks by Islamic militant groups is significant.

Reduced Threat Outlook

Optimistic interpretations of the available intelligence imply a low risk of terrorist loss.. Attack frequency is at the lower 90% confidence limit, and is consistent with observed frequency in the past decade. Medium-scale conventional attacks are the predominant methods of attack and there is only a small chance of a CBRN attack. Swarm attacks are less likely than in the RMS Standard outlook.

Detailed documentation of the recommended usage and parameterization of each of these is available in the client-only Parameterization methodology document.

Current Recommended Risk Outlook:

RMS Standard