RMS Publishes Assessment of Future Flood Risk in New Orleans

Stakeholders Urged to Consider Analysis of Future Risk Factors as Crucial for City Redevelopment

Newark, Calif. – December 4, 2006 –  Risk Management Solutions (RMS) today released an extensive report on the future flood risk faced by the city of New Orleans due to hurricane storm surges. The report, Flood Risk in New Orleans: Implications for Future Management and Insurability, outlines the ongoing threat of flood risk due to future hurricane storm surges and considers the role of insurance, the planning process, and the government in providing physical and economic protection so those living and investing in the city can have confidence that the risk is being effectively managed.

In framing the debate for New Orleans’ future, the report signals to those who hold a stake in the future of New Orleans, including the policy makers who are responsible for its safety and prosperity, that they must plan for a future that will undoubtedly be more hazardous than in the past. The report concludes that the threat of flooding in the city continues to increase due to a combination of three physical temporal factors:
 

	As a result of its location on thick recent delta sediments along the edge of an oceanic basin, the city is sinking at geologically rapid rates
	Over the last decade, global sea level rise has increased as a result of climate change and is predicted to accelerate into the future
	The level of Atlantic basin hurricane activity has risen, with the biggest increases for the strongest storms, particularly in and around the Gulf of Mexico

These factors all serve to increase the storm surge flood hazard faced by New Orleans, and will significantly raise the risk of flooding in the city through the 21st century.

“While this report concerns a single city along the U.S. Gulf Coast, the devastation caused by storm surge and flooding in New Orleans can be seen as a parable of our time,” stated Hemant Shah, president and CEO of RMS. “These problems are shared by many cities along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, as well as other coastal cities around the world that face similar risks due to rising sea levels and increasing storm intensity associated with climate change.”

The report illustrates how the risk analysis involved in assessing insurability can be a useful tool for policy makers concerned with determining acceptable levels of risk. In addition, the use of catastrophe models to quantify the risk allows the individual components of risk (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) to be separated, so that uncertainties are explored along with alternative strategies for risk mitigation.

“New Orleans has the opportunity to pioneer solutions that maintain the viability of the city while at the same time ensuring that risk to the city’s citizens and businesses is maintained below acceptable and published thresholds,” said Robert Muir-Wood, chief research officer of RMS. “As the leading independent provider of global risk information, RMS will be working to ensure that probabilistic risk analytics continue to remain at the heart of decisions about development, flood protection, and economic viability.”
 

Click here to access the full report:
http://www.rms.com/Publications/NO_FloodRisk.pdf