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RMS Estimates a Repeat of the 1974 Tornado Super
Outbreak Could Reach as High as $3.5 Billion for Wind Losses Alone
Loss Would Set a New Record for Severe
Thunderstorms
Newark, Calif. – April 5, 2004 – Risk
Management Solutions, Inc. (RMS), the world's leading provider of
products and services for catastrophe risk management, today announced
the release of an in-depth study of potential costs to the U.S.
insurance industry from a recurrence of the Tornado Super Outbreak of
April 3-4, 1974. Considered one of the worst weather disasters in U.S.
history, the outbreak produced tornadoes across 13 states in a single
day.
If the event were to happen today, RMS estimates that
insured losses could reach as much as $3.5 billion from wind damage
alone. This would exceed the record-setting losses from an outbreak in
May 2003 that caused an estimated $3.13 billion in total insured losses,
according to the Property Claims Service of the Insurance Services
Office.
The 1974 Super Outbreak developed to the southeast of
an extratropical low-pressure system near the Iowa-Illinois border. In
total, 148 tornadoes spanned 13 states and impacted 900 square miles
(2,330 square km) in less than 18 hours. As many as 15 destructive
tornadoes
occurred simultaneously during the outbreak. In total, 315 people were
killed, more than 6,000 were injured, and over 27,500 buildings were
damaged.
"The scale of the geographic area affected by this
outbreak is unmatched, and therefore is often viewed as a worst-case
tornado event," said Kyle Beatty, RMS meteorologist. "However, despite
the record loss potential of a recurrence of the 1974 outbreak, there
are events that could cause substantially greater catastrophic loss.
Many major metropolitan areas in the Midwest and South had the potential
to be hit by tornados in the 1974 event, but were spared. If several of
these metro areas were struck by significant tornadoes in the same
outbreak, the loss could surpass the 1974 recurrence estimate by several
times."
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