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Germany
Europe Earthquake - Germany
 Seismicity in Europe
Europe has a long and complex history of seismic
activity. The convergence of the Eurasian and African plates across the
Mediterranean has resulted in a wide zone of collision tectonics and the
formation of smaller microplates along the plate boundary zone. Seismic
activity generally decreases northward away from the Mediterranean
region through the Alps. North of the Alps, within the interior of the
Eurasian plate, earthquakes are associated with several slowly deforming
rift zones created by extensional forces.
Germany’s Seismic Risk
Seismic activity in Germany varies considerably
across the country. Germany’s highest seismic activity is associated
with main tectonic structures, including the Rhine Graben rift zone in
the west and southwest of Germany, and the Swabian Jura Mountains in
southwest Germany. A number of moderate to large earthquakes have struck
Germany in the past, including estimated magnitude 5.6 to 5.8 events in
1756 near Düren and in 1878 near Tollhausen, both in northwest Germany,
and in 1911 near Ebingen in southwest Germany. More recently, in 1978,
the magnitude 5.2 Albstadt Earthquake caused an estimated US$50 million
in total damage.
Underwriting and managing
earthquake insurance in this environment is a complex undertaking.
Released in 2007, the RMS® Europe Earthquake Model helps insurers and
reinsurers in this task by quantifying risk across various regions and a
wide variety of construction types. The RMS Europe Earthquake Model
complements RMS models for windstorm and flood in Germany.
Model Highlights
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Stochastic database of earthquake events based on
long recorded history of earthquakes in Europe. The full Europe
Earthquake model includes over 45,000 simulated earthquakes |
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High-resolution hazard modeling using the RMS
variable resolution grid (VRG); includes databases for soil type and
liquefaction susceptibility |
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RMS third-generation earthquake modeling
incorporating spectral response approach to building damage
calculations |
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Vulnerability functions capturing the unique
behaviour of European building stock, including regional variations
with building inventory data in case of unknown primary
characteristics |
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Building vulnerability curves developed through
RMS research and collaboration with local experts |
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Broad suite of secondary modifiers to help refine
building damage asses |
Geographic Scope
All of Germany
Exposure Data Resolution
Data input supported at the following levels of
resolution: latitude/longitude, street address, street name, postal code
(PLZ), city, and CRESTA zone
Related Models
Industrial Facilities Model
Europe Windstorm
 Extra-tropical
cyclone (ETC) risk in Northern Europe is one of the most complex
climatic phenomena in the world to model. The generally swift moving,
broad-reaching storms affect wide areas with relatively low-levels of
damage at individual sites compared to their tropical counterparts.
However, due to their breadth and relatively high frequency of
occurrence, losses can accumulate to extraordinary levels in any given
year. The most exposed area to high windspeeds from ETCs is the western
edge of Europe, particularly Ireland and Britain, while other parts of
Europe, particularly to the south and east in Austria and Switzerland,
are exposed to relatively frequent damaging winds from summer
thunderstorms.
Since 1996, RMS has continually developed state-of-the-art databases and
associated methodologies to quantify Europe Windstorm risk. The RMS®
Europe Windstorm Model includes a comprehensive suite of wind events
enabling loss calculations both from large-scale extra-tropical
winter-storms, such as windstorms Anatol, Lothar, and Martin in 1999,
and from smaller-scale summer thunderstorm events, such as the
Birmingham Tornado in 2005. The model allows seamless modeling across
12 countries, including the effects of post-event loss amplification.
Unlike regions affected by tropical cyclones, Europe has no single
agency, authority, or publication that has created a comprehensive
catalog of significant ETC storms over the past century. Therefore, RMS
has compiled a unique catalog of more than 2,500 storms, spanning 138
years, using daily meteorological archives from many European countries
and agencies, and has used statistical techniques to combine this
original research with information from numerical weather models and
climate models. This comprehensive blend of techniques and data sources
has been woven together in a long-term simulation of possible windstorm
events with realistic tracks, frequency and severity distributions,
which are essential for a fully probabilistic assessment of windstorm
risk. Incorporating vulnerability functions calibrated against volumes
of historical insured claims data, and integrating them within the
framework of the RMS financial model has resulted in a comprehensive,
state-of-the-art catastrophe model.
The RMS Europe Windstorm Model is used by major European insurers,
leading reinsurers in all major global markets, and capital market
constituents in the development of alternative risk transfer securities.
Model Highlights
Geographic Scope
The RMS Europe Windstorm Model covers the following
countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United
Kingdom.
Exposure Data Resolution
The RMS Europe Windstorm Model supports analyses at
the following geographic resolution in each country:
Austria: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode, Gemeinde, or
CRESTA Zone
Belgium: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode, Province, or
CRESTA Zone
Denmark: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode, Amt, or CRESTA
Zone
France: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode, Departement, or
CRESTA Zone
Germany: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode, State, or CRESTA
Zone
Ireland: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Dublin Postcode, County, or
Province
Luxembourg: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, City, District, or
CRESTA Zone
Netherlands: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode, Province, or
CRESTA Zone
Norway: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode, or Fylke
Sweden: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode, Lan, or CRESTA
Zone
Switzerland: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode, or Canton
United Kingdom: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode District,
Postcode Sector, or CRESTA Zone
Germany River Flood
River flooding in Germany is frequent and losses can
accumulate significantly, as witnessed by several major flood events
over the past 10 years, culminating in the Summer 2002 River Elbe
flooding which caused nearly €2 billion insured damage within Germany.
The RMS® Germany Flood Model builds on the success of our U.K. and
Belgium modeling experiences to assess both off and on-flood plain
risks, providing high-resolution capability to price and underwrite
policies and manage portfolio aggregations.
RMS has developed a rainfall event set covering all of Western Europe
that accurately reflects the temporal-spatial patters of flood-causing
rainfall throughout the year. A dynamic, time-stepping rainfall-runoff
model evaluates the amount of water that flows into the river systems,
by considering detailed physical catchment characteristics, seasonality,
elevation, temperature, and antecedent conditions. The on and
off-floodplain components are seamlessly linked, so off-floodplain flood
waters can flow into the river network. River flow calculations
explicitly determine the effect of flood wave management structures such
as retention dams and polders and storage cells, and defense failures on
downstream water levels.
The RMS model calculations are performed on a propriety RMS variable
resolution grid (VRG) of up to 50-meter resolution for computing losses
where street level exposure information is available. Damage functions
relate the level of insurance loss to the depth of floodwaters using a
component-based model derived from engineering and flood studies, and
several years of flood experience.
Model Highlights
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Rainfall simulation methodology reflects
temporal-spatial reality of rain across Europe |
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Rainfall-runoff calculations include elevation,
temperature, and seasonality, as well as physical catchment
characteristics |
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River flows incorporate the behavior of defenses
and water management structures on downstream water levels |
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Calculations performed on a VRG of up to 50-meter
horizontal resolution |
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Includes off-floodplain flooding from small
streams, sheet flow, and drainage overflow, seamlessly linked in the
on-floodplain component |
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Germany-specific on and off-floodplain
vulnerability functions |
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Detailed inventory data defined at postal-code
for unknown construction, occupancy or height |
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Calibrated using detailed loss data from recent
events |
Geographic Scope
Full coverage across the Germany river basins:
Rhine, Weser, Elbe and Danube
Exposure Data Resolution
River flood risk can be analyzed at
Latitude/Longitude, Street Address, 5-figure Postcode, CRESTA Zone
HailCalc Europe
 Hail
produced by severe thunderstorms can cause severe, though localized,
levels of damage in Europe, which is usually covered in standard
windstorm policies, and therefore contributes significantly to the
average annual loss (AAL) in this region. For some countries, hail
losses can total up to over one third of the AAL from winter windstorms.
Much of central Europe is prone to severe thunderstorms during May to
September, particularly around the Alpine foreland. The risk from this
peril is highlighted by the 1984 Munich Hailstorm, which caused more
than €1.5 billion damage in today’s values, around half of which was
insured. Since then, insurance penetration increased and property values
at risk have continued to rise, thus the expected losses from a similar
event today would be much higher. However, while such intense hailstorms
can occur every two to three years, the narrow footprint of severe
damage means that the probability of such an event passing over a
densely urbanized area and generating large insured loss is much lower.
HailCalc Europe is designed for portfolio EP analysis and reinsurance
purchasing. The software originated in 2001 from research into the
relationship between radar measurements and hail losses in Switzerland.
A unique method takes hail kinetic energy derived from radar data and
translates this into hailstorm footprints. Hail kinetic energy
represents the time-integrated volume of hailfall in a particular
location that can be directly related to the intensity and extent of
hail damage. The original researchers collaborated with Swiss Re to
extend the methodology across Europe, blending this innovative
methodology with Swiss Re’s wealth of expertise and large volume of
claims data to derive damage functions. A catalog of nearly 2,000
historical hailstorms was developed from operational radar data and
combined with additional climatological and meteorological data to
generate the stochastic event set on a 3 km-x-3 km grid spanning eight
European countries.
RMS’ acquisition of HailCalc Europe complements the latest RMS Europe
Windstorm Model, which includes a separate component to model
wind-related losses from severe thunderstorms in addition to
winterstorms. The combination of the two models will uniquely enable RMS
clients to assess their risk from key sources of windstorm loss.
Regionally-based insurance companies with business in hail-exposed areas
will particularly benefit from the addition of severe thunderstorm loss
modeling to the long-established RMS suite of peril models. The model
will also be highly valuable for auto insurers, as auto claims can
contribute to up to 70% of hail damages.
Model Highlights
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Stochastic event set generated from a
comprehensive database of 1,800 historical hailstorms derived
through complex processing of operational radar |
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Hazard and risk modeling are carried out at high
resolution on a 3 km-by-3 km grid and allow correlation of risk
across multiple countries |
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Vulnerability model development work carried out
in partnership with Swiss Re, providing access to inventory
information, insured exposure and claims data |
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Models leading lines of business for each
country: Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Agricultural and Auto |
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Validated using detailed loss data from recent
events |
Geographic Scope
HailCalc Europe covers the following eight countries:
Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and
Switzerland.
Exposure Data Resolution
HailCalc Europe incorporates a different geocoding
technique than that used by the RMS models. For all modeled countries,
only exposure data aggregated to CRESTA - or country-level is supported.
During data import, HailCalc Europe disaggregates the imported exposure
onto a 3 km-by-3 km grid using inventory maps developed with Swiss Re.
The loss calculations are performed at this grid level resolution and
are re-aggregated for output.
RMS provides HailCalc Europe as a standalone software platform, separate
from RiskLink® and RiskBrowser®, in its original
format without any modifications. As part of the version 7.0 release in
Spring 2007, functionality will be included to allow users to import
HailCalc Europe losses into RiskLink to group hail losses with any other
RiskLink modeled losses and apply required treaties. Future RMS research
and development will focus on upgrading the peril model to enable
location-level loss modeling and fully integrate the model into RiskLink
and RiskBrowser.
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