Europe Windstorm

Extra-tropical cyclone (ETC) risk in Northern Europe is one of the most complex climatic phenomena in the world to model. The generally swift moving, broad-reaching storms affect wide areas with relatively low-levels of damage at individual sites compared to their tropical counterparts. However, due to their breadth and relatively high frequency of occurrence, losses can accumulate to extraordinary levels in any given year. The most exposed area to high windspeeds from ETCs is the western edge of Europe, particularly Ireland and Britain, while other parts of Europe, particularly to the south and east in Austria and Switzerland, are exposed to relatively frequent damaging winds from summer thunderstorms.

Since 1996, RMS has continually developed state-of-the-art databases and associated methodologies to quantify Europe Windstorm risk. The RMS® Europe Windstorm Model includes a comprehensive suite of wind events enabling loss calculations both from large-scale extra-tropical winter-storms, such as windstorms Anatol, Lothar, and Martin in 1999, and from smaller-scale summer thunderstorm events, such as the Birmingham Tornado in 2005. The model allows seamless modeling across 12 countries, including the effects of post-event loss amplification.

Unlike regions affected by tropical cyclones, Europe has no single agency, authority, or publication that has created a comprehensive catalog of significant ETC storms over the past century. Therefore, RMS has compiled a unique catalog of more than 2,500 storms, spanning 138 years, using daily meteorological archives from many European countries and agencies, and has used statistical techniques to combine this original research with information from numerical weather models and climate models. This comprehensive blend of techniques and data sources has been woven together in a long-term simulation of possible windstorm events with realistic tracks, frequency and severity distributions, which are essential for a fully probabilistic assessment of windstorm risk. Incorporating vulnerability functions calibrated against volumes of historical insured claims data, and integrating them within the framework of the RMS financial model has resulted in a comprehensive, state-of-the-art catastrophe model.

The RMS Europe Windstorm Model is used by major European insurers, leading reinsurers in all major global markets, and capital market constituents in the development of alternative risk transfer securities.

Model Highlights

	Comprehensive assessment of wind-related risk from both ETC-winterstorms and severe thunderstorms
	Incorporates a pioneering blend of numerical and parametric modeling to capture the intricate windfield structures typical of European windstorms
	Basin-wide track modeling, based on unique, comprehensive RMS’ track database—essential to producing possible future outcomes that are very different from what has occurred in the last 50 years
	Validated using insured loss data from 14 historical storms spanning many countries
	Incorporates high-resolution modeling of ETC-associated storm surge in the U.K.
	Models leading lines of business in each country, and the impact of post-event loss amplification
	Provides unique capabilities to model "clash" between individual countries
	Rigorously validated against independent meteorological datasets
	High-resolution wind calculations underpinned by detailed models of upwind terrain conditions

Geographic Scope

The RMS Europe Windstorm Model covers the following countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

Exposure Data Resolution

The RMS Europe Windstorm Model supports analyses at the following geographic resolution in each country:

Austria: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode, Gemeinde, or CRESTA Zone
Belgium: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode, Province, or CRESTA Zone
Denmark: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode, Amt, or CRESTA Zone
France: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode, Departement, or CRESTA Zone
Germany: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode, State, or CRESTA Zone
Ireland: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Dublin Postcode, County, or Province
Luxembourg: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, City, District, or CRESTA Zone
Netherlands: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode, Province, or CRESTA Zone
Norway: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode, or Fylke
Sweden: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode, Lan, or CRESTA Zone
Switzerland: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode, or Canton
United Kingdom: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Postcode District, Postcode Sector, or CRESTA Zone