Canada

	Earthquake
	Winterstorm
	Severe Convective Storm

Canada Earthquake

Since 1992, the RMS® Canada Earthquake Model has set the standard for evaluating seismic risk in Canada. More than 60 companies use the model to underwrite, price, and transfer earthquake-related catastrophe risk, including 6 of the top 10 Canadian insurers. The model is also utilized by leading brokers and reinsurers worldwide.

Earthquake shock and fire following are modeled for exposed territories in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec. The 1997 East upgrade incorporates the latest seismic and engineering research, and model results are accepted as a basis for OSFI regulatory filings. The 2003 West upgrade incorporates spectral response methodology established by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) center and the latest research on damageability of steel moment frame buildings by the SAC Joint Venture.

Model Highlights

	Multiple segment and varied depth rupture scenarios along the three-dimensional Cascadia Subduction Zone
	Western Canada attenuation functions specific to observed ground motions by fault type, and synchronized with those for the western U.S.
	Recurrence parameters consistent with the Canadian Geological Survey
	Event Set consistent with the 1995 Geological Survey of Canada (GSC) source model and the 2002 USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps for cross-border sources in western Canada
	Soil data modeled at VRG, 3-digit postal code, and CRESTA level; liquefaction data modeled at 6-digit postal code resolution for major metropolitan areas; landslide and Fire following earthquake modeled at 3-digit postal code level
	Vulnerability function developed in conjunction with local engineers to account for unique aspects of Canadian design and construction practices

Geographic Scope

Since large parts of Canada are not populated, the RMS hazard module for Canada focuses on modeling the seismic sources affecting the urban areas in the three provinces that are home to the vast majority of the population, and consequently the insured inventory in the country:

Western Canada: British Columbia
Eastern Canada: Ontario and Quebec
Exposure Data Resolution

The RMS Canada Earthquake Model supports analyses at a variety of geographical resolutions, including Latitude/Longitude, 6-digit postal code (LDU), 3-digit postal code (FSA), and CRESTA Zone.

Canada Winterstorm

Winter storms in Canada are complex, extra-tropical weather systems that can produce various types and combinations of damage from the perils of snow, ice, freezing temperatures, and extra-tropical winds. The combination and intensity of the winter storm perils at a particular location are governed by the location of the storm origin, the region impacted, and the large-scale weather pattern. Winter storms that impact Canada can be generally characterized as follows:

 

 

	Storms that produce high wind speeds along North America’s West Coast and cause interior snowfall at higher elevations
	Alberta-clipper storms that develop over the Canadian Rocky Mountains and bring a combination of winter storm perils to Canada’s central and eastern provinces and Great Lakes region. Typically, these storm systems are followed by cold arctic air that is responsible for freeze-related losses
	Storms that develop east of the U.S. Rockies and bring a combination of winter storm perils to the eastern half of the U.S. and Canada
	Nor’easter storm systems that rapidly intensify over the warm Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean and cause extensive snowfall, high winds, and occasional ice along North America’s East Coast
	Lake-effect snowstorms generally caused in the wake of a storm system as cold air from Canada travels over the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes. Clouds and snowstorms can occur on windward side of the Great Lakes.

Winter Storm Risk

Winter storm losses are a key component of the total natural catastrophe risk in Canada, contributing nearly a third of the overall average annual loss. Winter storms are the key driver of natural catastrophe risk to British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic Provinces.

The costliest winter storm and natural catastrophe to impact Canada was the 1998 Ice Storm that hit the provinces of Ontario and Québec from January 4-10. Nearly 4.7 million people in Canada lost power during the ice storm, with insured losses of C$1.6 billion. After six days of intermittent ice accumulation, impressive amounts of precipitation were recorded across the region. Nearly 800,000 insurance claims were filed in Canada mainly from direct physical damage from falling branches, and poles, indirect compensation for additional living expenses or business interruption associated with power outages, and losses related to the spoilage of refrigerated contents.

Model Highlights

	Comprehensive winter storm modeling solution explicitly capturing losses from the perils of snow, ice, wind, and freezing temperatures
	Developed through an innovative hybrid modeling solution that combines numerical weather prediction models and statistical techniques to create a fully representative stochastic event set, simulating common to severe winter storms, representing 30,000 years of winter storm activity
	High-resolution numerical weather prediction modeling of winter storms in 4-dimensions captures the complex spatial patterns of the winter storm perils and the interdependency upon atmospheric conditions
	Winter storm hazard evaluated on RMS’ high-resolution variable resolution grid (VRG) specific to winter storms
	Unique vulnerability functions developed for each winter storm peril to capture the different damage modes between perils to drive an accurate assessment of winter storm risk
	Broad suite of secondary modifiers to refine building damage assessment

Geographic Scope
The RMS® Canada Winterstorm Model covers Canadian provinces south of the 60°N line of latitude which includes the following provinces: British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, Newfound and Labrador, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and Nova Scotia.

Exposure Data Resolution
The RMS® Canada Winterstorm Model supports analyses at the following geographic resolution: Latitude/longitude, Street Address, Zip Code, City, or CRESTA
 

 

Canada Severe Convective Storm

Since 1994 the RMS® Canada Severe Convective Storm Model (formerly the Tornado/Hail Model) has been utilized by companies writing business in Canada to evaluate and transfer risk associated with severe local storms. The model has undergone its most recent upgrade in 2008. Tornadoes, hail, and damaging straight-line winds have been observed in each of the 10 provinces of Canada, however hail contributes disproportionately to overall risk and is of particular interest in the western provinces of Alberta and British Columbia. For example, the city of Calgary experienced four hail events between 1995 and 1998 with insured losses in excess of $100 million per event (in 2008 dollars).

Two primary mechanisms generate severe local storms in Canada. The first is common along the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rockies and Coast Mountains, where warm, dry air originating in the higher elevations descends atop moist air at the surface. Storm initiation occurs as the moist air is forced upward through the mass of dry air, particularly in areas of rapidly increasing elevation. The second type of storm formation occurs along boundaries such as cold fronts, and is the dominant source for storm initiation in the central and eastern provinces. In this case, storms form due to the interaction of cool, dry air from the north with warm, moist air originating from the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico. Both types of storm mechanisms can spawn tornadoes or hailstorms.

The chart below shows the insured losses by year for Canada since 1991.

Model Highlights

	High-resolution hazard modeling approach in metropolitan areas with concentrated exposure and risk such as Edmonton, Calgary, Toronto, and Winnipeg
	Stochastic event set with robust representation of the spectrum of potential outbreaks, based on the latest advancements in meteorological and statistical modeling
	Comprehensive loss estimation for tornado, hail, and straight-line wind events including losses due to lightning, tornadic damage outside of immediate path, and rain-related building content damages
	Model results validated using subject experts, insurer and industry losses for individual events, return periods for extreme historical events, and comparisons of province-level average annual loss estimates

Geographic Scope

The Canada Severe Convective Storm Model covers all areas of the Canadian provinces below 58 degrees North latitude.

Exposure Data Resolution

Exposure data may be entered at the three-digit (FSA), six-digit (LDU) postal code, or latitude/longitude  level of resolution. Model analysis is performed based on a variable resolution grid, with greatest resolution in metropolitan areas with high exposure to severe convective storm hazard.