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Current Cat Activity
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Southwest UK and Ireland Flooding
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7/2/2009, Cornwall, Devon, Dublin -
A band of thunderstorms bringing heavy rainfall is currently affecting the southwest region of England and east Ireland, causing flooding and severe disruption to Dublin in Ireland and reports of flooding in parts of Cornwall. Since Wednesday night the storms have been moving north across Cornwall and Devon and along the east coast of Ireland, bringing torrential rainfall to areas including Dublin and Helston in Cornwall, which have so far bore the brunt of the weather. On Thursday morning thunderstorms associated with very heavy rainfall was affecting eastern portions of Cornwall, including Falmouth and Helston where flooding of roads was reported. In Dublin, the roof of an A & E department at the Mater hospital was reported to have partially collapsed and major flooding was being reported on many routes in the capital and the greater Leinster area. The flooding in Dublin as of Thursday, 2 July, is reported to have subsided significantly since Wednesday night and the heavy downpours experienced on Thursday morning have also eased, however more rain is expected later today. The worst affected areas are Fairview, East Wall, Collins Avenue, Donnycarney, Pearse Street and Dolphins Barn. At 10:48 UTC on Thursday 2 July the UK Met Office issued an advisory for severe or extreme weather, warning of heavy rainfall for Wales and Southwest England on Thursday 2 July. The advisory warns of heavy, thundery rain spreading northeastwards during the day and local downpours which could generate 25 to 50 mm of rainfall. Later in the day the rain will ease from the south. The Met Office has also issued flash warnings of severe or extreme weather for Highlands and Eilean Sir, Strathclyde, Central, Tayside and Fife, Northern Ireland and Southwest England. The flash warnings are for heavy rain affecting these areas and are valid until the late afternoon and evening of Thursday 2 July. The Environment Agency currently does not have any flood warnings or watches in place. The forecast for the next 24 hours shows the storms moving away from the affected regions, with dryer conditions returning Thursday night. On Friday, sunny intervals are forecast for the southwest UK with light showers for Dublin. RMS will continue to monitor the severe weather and will update this report should the situation worsens.
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Greece Earthquake Mw 6.7
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7/1/2009, Crete, Greece -
On Wednesday, 1 July a magnitude 6.7 (moment magnitude) earthquake struck just offshore of the island of Crete, Greece at 09:30 UTC (12:30 pm local time). The USGS has released a preliminary epicentre location at 34.188N, 25.426E, approximately 80 miles (129 km) south of Iraklion, Crete, 168 miles (270 km) north-northeast of Tubruq, Libya and 280 miles (450 km) south-southeast of Athens with a fixed focal depth of 23.6 miles (38 km). The strong earthquake shook the southeast of Crete with an MMI intensity of V, which indicates moderate shaking with the potential for very light damage. On the USGS Did You Feel It website there were reports of people feeling the shaking in Cairo, Egypt, located around 445 miles (715 km) away. There are no reports of damage or injuries at this time.
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6/25/2009, Central Europe -
The severe flooding in Central Europe this week has so far claimed at least ten lives and damaged hundreds of homes with rising water levels prompting flood warnings across the region. At present the worst flooding is in Austria and the Czech Republic, with several small towns and villages flooded and isolated. In northern Austria, three days of continuous heavy rainfall resulted in the Danube and some of its major tributaries rising, flooding towns and villages in Upper and Lower Austria. In the eastern Czech Republic a state of emergency has been declared in North Moravia after severe floods caused at least 10 people to be killed including four in the town of Novy Jicin, which saw up to 80mm of rain within two hours. Elsewhere, flood alerts have been issued in Hungary for the upper section of the Danube and the lowest section of the northwestern Raba river. On Thursday Bratislava in western Slovakia declared a second flood alert for the western part of the Danube region.
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Tropical Storm Andres
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6/25/2009, North Pacific Ocean -
As of Wednesday, 24 June at 03:00 UTC Tropical Storm Andres was located near 19.1N, 106.0W, approximately 110 miles (177 km) west of Manzanillo, Mexico with maximum sustained winds of around 69 mph (110 km/hr), classifying Andres as a tropical storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale. In the past 12 hours Andres had reached Category 1 hurricane status at it passed about 100 miles (160 km) southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, a major port city in the state of Michoacán, Mexico. Over the next 21 hours Andres is forecast to track north-westwards before heading out into the open waters of the North Pacific in a west-northwest heading. Andres is expected to lower in intensity but remain a tropical storm over the next couple of days as it tracks further away from the Mexican mainland. On Monday Mexican authorities had issued a hurricane warning, meaning such conditions are expected within the next day, for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Punto San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes. Port authorities shut down the ports in Zihuatanejo and Lazaro Cardenas. The National Hurricane Center said Andres could dump between 3 to 6 inches of rain over west central Mexico over the next couple of days. Mexico’s National Weather Service has issued an advisory warning that the four coastal states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco may experience flooding in low-lying areas and landslides as a result of the heavy rainfall expected in these areas. RMS will continue to monitor this event and will update this activity should any significant information come to light.
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Tropical Depression Linfa
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6/24/2009, South China Sea -
At 00:00 UTC on Sunday, 22 June Tropical Depression Linfa was located near 25.9N, 119.3E approximately 450 miles (652 km) west of Okinawa, Japan with maximum sustained winds of around 35 mph (56 km/hr), the equivalent of a tropical depression on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale. In the past 6 hours the cyclone has tracked northeastward over the coast of Fujian Province of China, near to the city of Fuzhou, with a forward speed of approximately 9 mph (15 km/hr). Over the next 12 hours Linfa is forecast to track northeastwards out towards the open waters of East China Sea reducing in intensity. It is expected to follow along this same trajectory over the next 36 hours continuing to lower in intensity until dissipating fully in the East China Sea. Over the weekend of Saturday and Sunday 20-21 June Linfa had reached a Category 1 storm as it tracked northeastwards across South China Sea towards mainland China. The storm made landfall in Fujian Province of China, near to Jinjiang City, an industrial city with a population of around 1 million people, at approximately 05:30 UTC (12:30pm local time) on Sunday, 21 June. At landfall maximum sustained winds were equivalent to a tropical storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale. The storm brought heavy rain and severe disruption to shipping and air services in the region. Between 200mm and 300mm of rain were recorded by Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau in eastern Taiwan, while 300mm to 450mm of rain were recorded in areas of Kaohsiung and Pingtung County in Taiwan. Air traffic between Taiwan’s main island Penghu in the middle of the Taiwan Straits and Kinmen, close to Fujian Province, was almost completely cancelled on Sunday, affecting 167 flights, leaving people stranded at airports. All sea cargo and ferry services to and from Penghu were cancelled on Sunday. The port of Xiamen in Fujian Province cancelled all operations on Sunday but was expecting to resume on Monday, 22 June. There appears from reports to have been only minor damage sustained in either mainland China or Taiwan. Power lines were reported damaged in Wangan Township and Wuqiu Township in Taiwan and a small number of reports of fallen trees, collapsed roofs and billboards were received in Kinmen County, Fujian Province, China. RMS will continue to monitor this event and will update this activity should any significant information come to light.
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Southern Alaska Earthquake - 5.4 Mw
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6/23/2009, Southern Alaska -
On Monday, 22 June a magnitude 5.4 (moment magnitude) earthquake struck southern Alaska at 19:28 UTC (11:28am local time). The USGS released a preliminary epicentre location at 61.922N, 150.654W, around 24 miles (39 km) west-northwest of Willow and 58 miles (94 km) north-northwest of Anchorage with a fixed focal depth of 32.7 miles (52.7 km). The moderate quake shook the surrounding region including Anchorage for several moments and could be felt as far south as Kenai and north to Fairbanks. There are no immediate reports of any damage or injuries at this time but RMS will continue to monitor reports and will update this report if necessary.
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US Severe Weather - 15 June
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6/17/2009, Central US -
On Monday, 15 June severe thunderstorms across the central US damaged houses and downed trees and power lines. The large supercell thunderstorms developed across portions of central Kansas late on Monday afternoon and began to move north-eastward towards eastern Kansas and western Missouri. As these storms moved east, they merged to form a large cluster of storms, which led to the favourable conditions for the development of severe thunderstorms associated with damaging winds. Thunderstorms affected eastern Kansas and western Missouri around 10 pm (local time) Monday, with gusts observed to be in excess of 120 mph (193 km/hr) in locations from Beagle to Fontana in Kansas and further east towards Drexel and Adrian in Missouri as these storms moved through after 11 pm (local time). The National Weather Service reported that there had been widespread tree and isolated structure damage across much of southern Miami, southern Cass, northern Linn and northern Bates counties in Missouri with estimated winds speeds of between 90 and 110 mph (145 and 177 km/hr). The NWS determined that straight line winds and not a tornado caused the damage. Drexel in Cass County, Missouri, with a population of around 1,000, appears to have been one of the worst affected areas, with reports of roof damage, downed power lines and fallen trees. Fontana in Miami County, Kansas, home to around 150 people was also said to have sustained some damage. There have been no reports of any deaths or injuries. The powerful thunderstorms on Monday night and Tuesday morning also resulted in power being knocked out across eastern Kansas and western Missouri, affecting an estimated 200,000 customers, according to the National Weather Service. At the height of the storm on Monday night approximately 41,500 Kansas City Power and Light customers were without power, mostly in the south and east of the Kansas City metro area. As of 19:30 UTC on Tuesday, 16 June (1:30 pm local time) there are currently 14,425 customers still without power.
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4/27/2009, Mexico -
On Thursday, 11 June the World Health Organization raised its alert status to level 6, officially declaring that a global pandemic of New Variant Influenza A/H1N1 is underway. This was widely expected: RMS clients received our first pandemic alert in April. The virus remains to be generally mild, with most sufferers recovering fully after a few days of symptoms.
Cases continue to spread rapidly in more than 74 countries. The official tally of lab-tested cases is over 28,000 worldwide; however, the actual number of cases is likely to be much higher than this. In many countries health authorities have stopped testing people with mild symptoms, due to the large numbers. Hospitalization rates are low, around 2.5% of confirmed cases in the United States. Deaths per case figures are around 0.15% of confirmed cases outside Mexico.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have not yet issued a formal severity assessment on their Pandemic Severity Index, but the current death per case rate in the U.S. is consistent with their definition of PSI level 2. In Mexico, however, where the outbreak originated, the disease seems to be more virulent: at least 108 people have died out of 6,241 confirmed cases. This may be a result of mild subclinical cases that were not counted by public health authorities, comorbidities, or healthcare factors that would make the population more vulnerable.
The rapid growth of cases in the southern hemisphere coincides with the onset of the winter flu season. We would expect cases in the northern hemisphere to continue to spread throughout the summer and to resurge in the winter months, during the northern hemisphere flu season. Current vaccine developments should enable public vaccination programs to start by Fall 2009.
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