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Current Cat Activity

Cat Name

Description
Tropical Storm Fiona 9/3/2010, Atlantic Basin - UPDATED 3 SEPTEMBER: Tropical Storm Fiona is tracking towards Bermuda. The NHC are forecasting the storm to pass near to the island, though to weaken on its approach. According to the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) at 12:00 UTC on Friday, 03 September, the center of Fiona was located close to 28.5°N 66.7°W, about 285 miles (460 km) south-southwest of Bermuda. The NHC reported that at this time Fiona had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/hr) - the equivalent of a tropical storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS). The system was also reported to have a minimum central pressure of approximately 1010 mb, and was moving towards the north at 13 mph (20 km/hr). Tropical storm force winds were extending outwards up to 105 miles (165km) from the center of Fiona. Fiona is expected to turn towards the north-northeast over later this afternoon (Friday, 03 September). On this forecast track Fiona is expected to pass near Bermuda later this evening or early Saturday, 04 September. Operational model guidance is in good agreement as to this north-northeast track over the forecast period. Information from the US Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that Fiona could be starting to weaken. The NHC is forecast Fiona to be the equivalent of a weak tropical storm on the SSHWS as it approaches Bermuda. Most models indicate that Fiona will weaken to a tropical depression within 24 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service has a tropical storm warning in effect for Bermuda. (A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within around 24 hours). The NHC has reported that storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) are possible on Bermuda. RMS will continue to monitor Fiona and will update this report if there are any significant impacts to report from Fiona.
Hurricane Earl
9/3/2010, Atlantic Ocean - UPDATED 03 SEPTEMBER: Hurricane Earl tracked approximately 85 miles (135 km) to the east of North Carolina’s Outer Banks between 06:00 UTC and 09:00 UTC on Friday, 3 September having weakened to a category 2 strength hurricane. Despite being a very large hurricane, North Carolina was spared Earl’s hurricane force winds. Initial reports suggest that there has been some minor damage on the Outer Banks such as broken windows, stripped siding and damaged shingles but there are no reports of widespread property damage, power outages, flooding or treefall at this stage. In the next 12-24 hours Earl’s forward speed is likely to increase further and it is expected to take a turn to the northeast. On this forecast track, Earl will approach southeastern New England on Friday night/Saturday morning. The NHC official track has Earl tracking approximately 55 miles offshore Cape Code in 24 hours and falls to the left hand side of the operational model guidance, i.e. suggesting a worst case scenario. As Earl continues to track northeast it will encounter increasing amounts of wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures (less than 27 C north of Cape Hatteras). These adverse environmental factors will cause Earl to weaken and the NHC are suggesting that Earl will be a category 1 hurricane when it bypasses Cape Cod. Hurricane force winds have the potential to impact coastal counties in Massachusetts, Maine and Rhode Island according the latest forecast, particularly if Earl deviates slightly west. Barnstable, Nantucket and Dukes Counties in Massachusetts are most exposed to Earl and these counties in particular house many high value homes. However, if Earl veers slightly east then the impact in New England will be greatly reduced, although it’s important to remember that Earl is a very large storm and tropical storm strength winds and heavy rains are still likely to impact the coastal regions. RMS has released a third set of stochastic events that model Earl’s projected track past New England. The resulting losses on RMS’ Industry Exposure Database from these events has reduced compared to those from yesterdays’ set of tracks. Updates to the accumulation footprints and a detailed analysis of the exposure at risk is also available. Clients with a valid user name and password can log into the Cat Updates area of rms.com to read the latest report and download these deliverables by clicking on the link on the left hand side of the page.
Tropical Storm Gaston 9/3/2010, Atlantic - Tropical storm Gaston, the seventh named storm of the 2010 hurricane season was declared at 21:00 UTC on Wednesday, 1 September. Gaston is the fourth named storm to form in the last eleven days and was another Cape Verde storm forming from an active wave off the coast of Africa. As of 03:00 UTC Gaston was located near 13.4N 37.7W about 935 miles (1500 km) west of the Cape Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/hr) and a minimum central pressure of 1005 mb. Gaston is moving in a westward direction with a forward speed near 12 mph (19 km/hr) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days, potentially with a decrease in forward speed. There is quite a large spread in the model track guidance, however most models favour a westward course which would mean Gaston would approach the Leeward Islands at the beginning of next week. There is also a high degree of uncertainty associated with the intensity guidance. Whilst most models indicate that Gaston will intensify over the next 5 days, there is a large spread with regards to how much intensification there will be, ranging from a weak tropical storm to a category 3 hurricane in 5 days time. The NHC are calling for a gradual increase in strength due to favourable environmental conditions, particularly over the next 48 hours and they suggest that Gaston will become a hurricane over the weekend. RMS will closely monitor Gaston’s progression across the Atlantic and this report will be updated by 10am BST on Friday, 3 September.
Typhoon Kompasu 9/2/2010, West Pacific - UPDATED 2 SEPTEMBER: Typhoon Kompasu made landfall close to the North-South Korean border as the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane late on Wednesday, 1 September. As of 03:00 UTC on Thursday, 2 September, the center of Typhoon Kompasu was located close to 38.6N 128.0E, approximately 90 miles (150 km) northeast of Seoul, South Korea and 125 miles east-southeast of Pyongyang, North Korea; just north of the Korean border. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that, over the previous 6 hours, Kompasu had been tracking towards the northwest with a forward speed of approximately 25 mph (40 km/hr), and had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/hr) – the equivalent of a weak category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), with gusts of up to 90 mph (150 km/hr) Kompasu made landfall to the north of Seoul, south of the Korean border, sometime before 00:00 UTC on Thursday. At landfall, Kompasu was the equivalent of a weak category 1 hurricane on the SSHWS with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/hr), having reduced in intensity somewhat over the previous 24 hours from a low category 3 storm. According to reports there have been three fatalities in Seoul, where trees, power lines and street lights have been downed. Power has been cut off to more than a million homes and more than 100 international flights have been delayed or cancelled. Services on subway lines and railway routes have been temporarily suspended. Forecasters are predicting that up to 6 inches (150 mm) of rainfall accumulations may be bought to parts of the Korean peninsula during Thursday. Previous to its Korean landfall, Kompasu impacts have been felt across the region, 86 oil workers at an oil platform in the Pinghu oilfield in the East China Sea were evacuated and in Japan, over 200 domestic and international flights were cancelled – affecting over 15,000 passengers. The system is expected to exit the Korean peninsula in the next few hours into the Sea of Japan, before weakening to the equivalent of tropical storm on the SSHWS and tracking towards northern Honshu and southern Hokkaido, Japan. As Kompasu tracks over the Sea of Japan, it is expected to become absorbed into the mid-latitude westerlies and begin extratropical transition, reaching Japan (in approximately 36 hours’ time) as a much weaker extratropical cyclone. Non-life insurance penetration in Korea is around 7%, but penetration in the household market is significantly lower, with only 640,000 household policies in relation to 16 million households (in 2008). RMS will continue to monitor Kompasu.
Tropical Storm Lionrock 9/1/2010, West Pacific - Lionrock has weakened slightly, is turning away from Taiwan and is forecast to make landfall over south east China in approximately 24 hours’ time. As of 03:00 UTC on Wednesday, 1 September Tropical Storm Lionrock was located near 22.6N 119.5E approximately 50 miles (80 km) southwest of Kaohiung, Taiwan with maximum sustained winds near 52 mph (83 km/hr) – the equivalent of a tropical storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS). Over the previous 6 hours Lionrock has been moving in a north-northeast direction at about 8 mph (13 km/hr) and is expected to track progressively more northwards and north-northwestwards over the next 24 hours. According to the JTWC, on this trajectory, Lionrock will make landfall over the southeast coast of China in around 24 hours’ time somewhere between Shanwei City, Guangdong province, and Xiamen City, Fujian province. This northwards and north-northwestwards motion should also ensure that Lionrock will not make landfall over southern Taiwan, as was previously a possibility. The Taiwanese Central Weather Bureau have forecast that rainfall accumulations could exceed 5 inches (130 mm) in parts of the central, southern, southeastern and eastern Taiwan. According to the JTWC forecast, Lionrock will reduce in strength slightly before making landfall as weak tropical storm. RMS will continue to monitor Lionrock and will update this report on Thursday, 2 September.
Hurricane Danielle 8/29/2010, Atlantic Ocean - UPDATED 27 AUGUST. Between 03:00 UTC and 06:00 UTC on Friday, 27 August Danielle has reached major hurricane status (category three) – becoming the most intense storm of the 2010 hurricane season thus far. According to the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) at 06:00 UTC on Friday, 27 August, the center of Danielle was located close to 26.2°N 58.1°W - over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean about 585 miles (940 km)southeast of Bermuda. The NHC report that at this time Danielle had maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/hr) - the equivalent of a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS). The system was also reported to have a minimum central pressure of approximately 975 mb, and was moving towards the northwest at 12 mph (19 km/hr). Hurricane force winds and tropical force winds were extending outwards up to 50 miles (85km) and 205 miles (335 km) respectively from the center of Danielle. Danielle is expected to turn towards the north-northwest and north over the next few days. On this track the NHC official forecast sees the centre of Danielle pass well to the east of Bermuda. (Under this forecast track Danielle would be far enough east of the island to mean that tropical storm force winds would not impact the island). Forecast models are in extremely good agreement as to this track over the next 48 hours, and continue in tight agreement of a track recurving the system out into the Atlantic over the forecast period. Over the 18 hours prior to 06:00 UTC today (Friday, 27 August) Danielle has developed an eye, which is now clearly visible in satellite images. Recent infrared imagery has shown that the eye of Danielle has contracted and become more distinct – a sign of strengthening. Hurricane Danielle is forecast to strengthen further over the next 24 to 36 hours, during which time the NHC are forecasting maximum sustained winds to reach the equivalent of category four SSWHS status. A category four hurricane is the maximum intensity reached by the model runs. By the end of the current forecast period the hurricane should weaken as it encounters cooler water at higher latitudes and an increase in wind shear – this scenario is evident in the NHC official forecast. As of 06:00 UTC on Friday, 27 August no coastal watches or warnings are in effect in association with Danielle. The Bermuda Weather Service have issued a small craft warning valid through this evening (Friday, 27 August) through Saturday (Saturday, 28 August). Swells from Danielle are expected to affect portions of the United States east coast as of today and Bermuda over the weekend. RMS will continue to monitor Major Hurricane Danielle. Provided Danielle remains an oceanic storm, and follows the current NHC official forecast track this will be the last cat activity issued in relation to Danielle.
Tropical Storm Frank 8/29/2010, East Pacific Basin - UPDATED 25 AUGUST. At 15:00 UTC on Sunday, 22 August, a tropical depression (Nine-E) offshore Mexico in the Eastern Pacific developed into the sixth named storm of the 2010 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season – Tropical Storm Frank. Over the last few days the system has moved (west-northwest) parallel to the coast of southern Mexico with little change in strength. As of 09:00 UTC on Wednesday, 25 August Frank is tracking away from the Mexican coast, and has strengthened slightly. According to the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) at 09:00 UTC on Wednesday, 25 August, the center of Frank was located close to 16.2°N 103.6°W, around 200 miles (320 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The NHC report that at this time that Frank had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110km/hr), a minimum central pressure of approximately 991 mb, and was moving towards the west-northwest at 9 mph (15 km/hr). At 09:00 UTC tropical storm force winds were extending outwards up to 70 miles (110km) from the center of Frank - Frank is however far enough offshore to mean that tropical storm force winds are not currently impacting the coastline. The storm is expected to continue to track towards the west-northwest through to Friday, 27 August - which would see the system move away from the southwestern cost of Mexico. Model guidances are in good agreement with this track, forecasting Frank to maintain its west-northwest track throughout the forecast period. The NHC has a high confidence in this track forecast. The NHC are calling for some strengthening of Tropical Storm Frank today (Wednesday, 24 August), and for the system to become a weak category one hurricane on the Saffir Simspon Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) later today. Beyond 48 hours the system is expected to weaken. The general trend in the model intensity guidances is a steady weakening of Frank, beginning in the next 12 to 24 hours. A category one hurricane is the maximum intensity reached by the model runs. Tropical Storm Frank has tracked far enough away from the coast for the Government of Mexico to remove all tropical storm warnings, and the system no longer poses a heavy rain threat. RMS will continue to monitor the system, however given the NHC forecast track (and the certainty associated with this) this will be the last RMS activity posted on Frank, unless there is significant change to the forecast track.
 

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